Lebanon is smaller than Connecticut, poorer than Detroit, and closer to collapse than most in the West realize. But what happens there in the next few months could shape the future of the Middle East—and ripple to gas prices, newsfeeds, and your airport security line.
Worse, to the extent Iran encourages Lebanese Hezbollah to strike at Israel, American allies—and sometimes American troops—get pulled into the crossfire. The refugee crisis that could start in Beirut may not stop there.
Lebanon has been under Iranian control until just recently. “For the first time in decades, there’s a real chance for Lebanon to regain its sovereignty,” says Professor Glenn Corn, a retired CIA senior executive with extensive experience in the Middle East.
He’s now a professor at the Institute of World Politics.
I caught up with Professor Corn just after he returned from a series of meetings in Beirut, spending time with government officials, civil society leaders, and political actors—“everyone except Hezbollah,” he notes wryly. What he describes is an unmistakable shift underway, one that could influence not just Lebanon’s future, the regional balance of power, and maybe even what we pay at the gas station.
A Nation Long Held Hostage
“Lebanon was hijacked after its civil war ended in 1990,” Corn explains. The Iranian-backed terrorist organization, Hezbollah, pretty much took over the country, and as Corn says, Iran turned Hezbollah into its “aircraft carrier” in Lebanon—a permanent forward base from which to project power and harass Israel.
But Iran’s influence over Lebanon didn’t just come at the barrel of a gun. “They funded schools, roads, clinics—especially in poor Shia areas,” Corn says. “It was a classic hearts-and-minds strategy. While the central government floundered, Hezbollah delivered.”
This dual structure—state and shadow state—enabled Hezbollah to paralyze Lebanon’s politics. “They could veto presidential candidates, stall reforms, and use fear to dominate,” he explains. That iron grip remained until very recently.
The Turning Point: A Cascade of Regional Shifts
Corn points to 2024 as the inflection point. At Iran’s urging, Hezbollah escalated attacks on Israel, triggering a response by Israel that, in Corn’s words, “stunned the intelligence community.”
“The Israelis were far more surgical and effective than anyone expected,” he recalls. “They took out high-level Hezbollah targets, including targets in places Hezbollah believed were secure. One missile strike hit a bunker where a Quds Force general and senior Hezbollah operatives were hiding. They were vaporized.”
More damaging than the bodies lost was the psychological fallout. “They detonated devices simultaneously—pagers, walkie-talkies—and sowed panic inside Hezbollah. Suddenly, no one trusted their equipment or each other. It was masterful.”
At the same time, another pillar of Iranian influence began to crack: Syria. When the Assad regime collapsed, its ability to serve as a supply corridor for Hezbollah vanished. “The new leadership in Damascus named Iran, ISIS, and Hezbollah as their three existential threats,” Corn says. “Remember, Israel and the US had once been Syria’s biggest enemies. That tells you how much things have changed.”
With the fall of the Assad regime, Turkey and the U.S quickly moved to bring Syria out of isolation, offering sanctions relief in exchange for cutting ties to Iran. “The Assad dynasty’s fall was a gift,” Corn says.
A New President—and a New Possibility
In Lebanon, the dominoes kept falling. After years of blocking candidates for the Presidency, in late 2024, the Lebanese were able to overcome Hezbollah’s obstacles and elect former Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) Commander, General Joseph Awn. “That was huge,” Corn says. “It signaled that Hezbollah no longer had an unbreakable veto.”
Even more astonishing was what followed: an agreement, brokered by France and the U.S., between Lebanon and Israel. It called for a ceasefire along the northern border and the gradual disarming of Hezbollah.
Now the Lebanese Armed Forces, working with United Nations peacekeepers in Southern Lebanon, are beginning to take control of Hezbollah weapons stockpiles and facilities along the Lebanese–Israeli border. However, Beirut is hesitant to move too quickly to disarm the Shi’a militia completely, given that the political environment in Lebanon remains fragile.
Today, with events in Iran, there’s a rare opportunity to support Lebanon in its quest to throw off the yoke of Iran and Hezbollah. “My view,” says Corn, “is that the West needs to play a more active role in filling the vacuum created by the weakening of Hezbollah.”
The danger is, as the West hesitates, Shi’a or Sunni extremists could fill the void. For our self-interest, the West needs to support Lebanon.
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About the Author
Mitzi Perdue, Fellow, Center for Intermarium Studies, Institute of World Politics, and Member, Education and Research Group, American Society for AI