As a former Navy SEAL sniper and instructor, I’ve spent a career studying the dynamics of precision shooting.
Every long-range shot comes down to a blend of physics, human control, and environmental awareness.
With the recent attention on a rooftop shot from Charlie Kirk’s killer from roughly 200 yards, many are asking: how does such a shot actually work?
This breakdown aims to educate the public on the mechanics, enabling people to understand how professional marksmen analyze situations like this.
Distance and the 200-Yard Mark
Two hundred yards is a very easy shot and a moderate distance for a trained sniper, and a relatively easy shot for someone with basic shooting skills.
I tend to agree with some reports by other snipers online that the shooter was not a trained sniper, and I’ll get to the why of that soon.
In military training, we routinely push past 1,000 yards. At 200 yards, the shot requires precision but is well within reach of a competent marksman.
At this range, the bullet’s trajectory is relatively flat. Most common rifle calibers will only drop an inch or two, meaning the shooter doesn’t need significant elevation adjustments.
Wind, however, can begin to play a role—especially crosswinds at rooftop height, and even a slight breeze can affect a bullet’s trajectory.
Then there’s the angle issue and temperature fluctuations, which most shooters, aside from experienced hunters or a trained sniper, would not understand.
In simple terms, shooting downward (with an angle) with the help of gravity requires the shooter to raise his sights higher to account for gravity.
If the rooftop were 6–8 stories high (roughly 60–80 feet), the angle of depression at 200 yards would be around 15–20 degrees.
Shooting at an angle changes bullet behavior slightly because of what’s known as the “cosine effect.” In short, bullets don’t drop as much when fired at a steep upward or downward angle. A sniper must account for this, adjusting the point of aim accordingly.
This diagram shows the importance of compensating for rise of impact for high-angle shooting
Caliber Considerations
Without recovered ballistics, we can’t state the exact caliber, but based on the video I saw online, here are some general observations:
- High-powered rifle calibers (like .308 or 6.5 Creedmoor) are common for 200-yard precision shots. These rounds maintain lethal energy and stable flight.
- Smaller calibers (like 5.56 NATO) can still be accurate at 200 yards, but their terminal effects are less dramatic compared to larger rounds.
- From video evidence of penetration and physical reaction of the victim, it’s consistent with a medium-to-large caliber rifle round rather than a handgun or small carbine caliber.
Shooter’s Skill Requirements
Executing this type of shot requires more than just a good rifle.
The shooter must:
- Control breathing and trigger squeeze under pressure.
- Understand how angle and environmental factors affects trajectory.
- Compensate for rooftop winds and thermal currents.
- Maintain stealth and stability in an exposed elevated position.
- Escape without detection.
It’s not just pulling the trigger; it’s executing a complete ballistic equation in real time.
The shooter likely has a military or law enforcement background because evading law enforcement afterwards requires this kind of training, unless luck factors in. The aftermath was chaos, and this creates a diversion in the shooter’s favor.
So my guess is that the shooter has some training, but is not a professional sniper.
At SOFREP, we are deeply saddened by the loss of Charlie Kirk. Regardless of political stance, his voice was an undeniable force in American discourse, and his absence leaves a profound void. We extend our condolences to his family, friends, and supporters. We hope that by shedding light on the technical aspects of this tragic event, we can contribute in some small way to the pursuit of truth and justice.