On Friday, August 1st, Ukrainian forces struck a critical blow in the ongoing conflict with Russia by sinking the Russian submarine Rostov-on-Don during a missile attack on Crimea. This submarine was one of four in the Black Sea equipped to launch Kalibr missiles, which are capable of striking targets deep within Ukraine.
Submarines Trapped
The successful strike on the Rostov-on-Don, which was undergoing repairs in Kilen Bay, Sevastopol, has left the remaining Russian submarines in a dire situation.
Defence Express reports that this event indicates that all Russian submarines in the Black Sea are effectively trapped. The loss of Rostov-on-Don not only weakens the Russian naval presence but also hampers its ability to project power and carry out missile attacks against Ukraine.
The remaining submarines—B-265 Krasnodar, B-268 Veliky Novgorod, and B-271 Kolpino—are now facing significant challenges. Due to the ongoing threat of Ukrainian attacks, these submarines cannot safely undergo necessary repairs in Sevastopol. Furthermore, there are no other repair facilities on the Russian coast of the Black Sea or the Sea of Azov that can handle these advanced vessels. This lack of maintenance capability puts the submarines at greater risk of operational failure or accidents.
Blocked Escape Routes
To add to the complexity of the situation, these submarines are unable to leave the Black Sea because Turkey has enforced a blockade on the Bosporus Strait in accordance with the Montreux Convention.
This convention gives Turkey control over the passage of naval warships through the strait and has been invoked to prevent further escalation in the region. As a result, the remaining submarines are effectively trapped. The longer they go without necessary inspections and repairs, the greater the likelihood of mechanical failures or underwater accidents.
The core of the Russian Black Sea Fleet consists of Project 11356R Burevestnik-class frigates. These ships are based on the Talwar-class frigates, originally designed for the Indian Navy, and rely heavily on technologies and weapons systems from the 1990s. The Russian Navy opted for this design to expedite the construction and deployment of the ships, which was deemed necessary to maintain a naval presence in the Black Sea.
Defense Capabilities
However, these frigates have significant limitations. Compared to their Indian counterparts, the Russian versions have restricted self-defense capabilities against both aircraft and submarines.
The vertical launch system 3S14, installed on Burevestnik-class ships serving in the Black Sea Fleet, is limited in its capacity and can only carry missiles from the 3M14 Kalibr family. This constraint is becoming a critical issue for the Russians as they seek to enhance their naval offensive capabilities.
The Kalibr missiles, while advanced, have encountered problems overcoming Ukrainian air defenses. This has forced the Russians to consider using 3M55 Oniks missiles against land targets. However, only the small corvettes of the Project 21631 Buyan-M class can carry these missiles. These corvettes, though, have their own set of issues.
Seaworthiness and Defense
The Project 21631 Buyan-M class corvettes have poor seaworthiness, limiting their operational capacity in adverse weather conditions, specifically in winds stronger than 20 mph on the Beaufort scale.
Additionally, they lack adequate self-defense capabilities against maritime drones and aerial threats. Similarly, the patrol ships of the Project 22160 Vasily Bykov class suffer from limited defensive systems.
Both ship types are equipped with basic self-defense systems, such as the 9K38 Igla surface-to-air systems, six-barreled 30 mm AK-630M cannons, and heavy machine guns, but these are insufficient against more sophisticated threats.
Strategic Implications
The Ukrainian missile strike on Rostov-on-Don has had significant strategic implications. By sinking this submarine and trapping the remaining ones, Ukraine has not only reduced the immediate threat posed by Russian naval forces but also highlighted the vulnerabilities within the Russian fleet.
You have to admire #Ukraine. Last Sept in occupied #Crimea they struck the Rostov-on-Don submarine, while it and a large Russian landing ship were in dry dock. Badly damaged, Russia’s spent almost a year repairing the sub, only for Ukraine to sink it this month. https://t.co/6cfRwtJ9pP pic.twitter.com/8WIgzZioWZ
— Glasnost Gone (@GlasnostGone) August 5, 2024
The inability to conduct necessary repairs and the blockade of the Bosporus Strait further exacerbate these vulnerabilities, putting additional pressure on the Russian Navy’s operational capabilities. The current situation underscores the strategic complexities and high stakes in the Black Sea region.
The successful Ukrainian attack on Rostov-on-Don has left the Russian Black Sea Fleet in a precarious position, with trapped submarines and limited repair options. As the conflict continues, the limitations of the Russian naval fleet, combined with strategic blockades, will likely play a critical role in shaping the future dynamics of the region.
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