Morning Brief: Trump, Putin Summit Does Not Bring Ceasefire, Zelensky to Meet With Trump Monday in Oval

· Guy D. McCardle

Through the armored glass of "The Beast" President Putin flashes a grin as the motorcade rolls out. Image Credit: Ada

Red Carpet, Zero Concessions: Trump–Putin Alaska Summit Delivers Optics, Not Peace

Anchorage rolled out the pomp: a red carpet, military pageantry, even a shared limo ride. After roughly three hours behind closed doors at Joint Base Elmendorf–Richardson, the Trump–Putin summit ended where it began—long on theater, short on results for Ukraine. No ceasefire. No roadmap. No leverage applied.

Trump sold the meeting as “productive,” repeating his line that he wants the killing to stop. He left Alaskans—and the world—with familiar catchphrases and the promise of future calls, not a concrete mechanism to silence Russian artillery. The B-2 flyover and ceremonial trappings did their job on optics; substance never caught up. 

Putin looked comfortable, even triumphant—the guest who knows he’s already gotten what he came for: stature. He offered expansive talk about “constructive dialogue” and his standing demands while refusing a ceasefire or meaningful concession. That contrast—lavish welcome, zero give—was the day’s headline from Moscow’s perspective. 

To his credit, Trump didn’t try to bargain away Ukrainian interests without Ukrainians present, a red line Kyiv and several European capitals were watching closely. He said he won’t negotiate on Ukraine’s behalf and now plans to bring President Volodymyr Zelensky to the White House on Monday. That’s the right process move, but it doesn’t change the scoreboard from Anchorage: still 0–0, with the people of Ukraine paying the price. 

Reactions tracked predictable lanes. U.S. and European officials registered disappointment at the lack of deliverables; critics blasted the red-carpet treatment for a leader under ICC warrant. Russian commentators cast the day as a win: global legitimacy without battlefield compromise. That’s not just spin—it’s the photo album. 

The joint appearance produced platitudes, not pressure. No new sanctions. No announced next summit with Putin. And no timeline or enforcement mechanism that could plausibly slow Russia’s operations in the near term. For a president who campaigned on ending the war quickly, the Alaska gambit looked like all sizzle, no steak.

Bottom line: Anchorage was a stage, not a strategy. If Washington wants movement, it needs a package that tightens costs on the Kremlin while giving Kyiv real security guarantees—and it needs to do it with Zelensky at the table, not as an afterthought.

 

Oval Office or Bust: Trump–Zelensky Aim for Peace Plan, Not a Pause

If Alaska was the dress rehearsal, Monday’s Oval Office sit-down is the main event. President Donald Trump and President Volodymyr Zelensky will meet at the White House on August 18 to chase something bigger than a shaky ceasefire: a comprehensive peace deal that ends Russia’s war rather than freezing it in place. That’s the right target—and a tougher lift. 

Peace Agreement vs. Ceasefire. Both leaders, backed by key Europeans, are leaning toward a full agreement over a stop-shooting band-aid. After Anchorage produced optics without deliverables, the logic is simple: past ceasefires broke like cheap glass under artillery fire. A durable settlement is the only thing worth the flight plan.

Security Guarantees for Kyiv. Zelensky is pressing for reliable U.S.–European assurances baked into any deal. Expect the White House conversation to run through NATO’s role, force posture, and triggers that actually make the Kremlin think twice the next morning. NATO chief Mark Rutte has already framed the debate around moving “past a ceasefire” toward real guarantees.

A Trilateral on Deck. Momentum is building for a three-way summit—Trump, Zelensky, Putin—if Washington and Kyiv can align on terms. Zelensky has said the hard calls belong at the top table, and the White House has signaled a Putin follow-on is possible if Monday shows progress. That’s fourth-quarter football, not a coin toss. 

Europe in the Room (One Way or Another). European leaders have been clear: no deals about Ukraine without Ukraine—and with European security tied to the outcome, their signatures matter. Look for calls, side letters, and a sanctions playbook ready to tighten if Moscow stalls. 

How We Got Here. After the Anchorage summit ended with praise and platitudes but no ceasefire, Trump spent the flight home on the phone with Zelensky and NATO counterparts to map a path forward. Monday’s meeting is the first crack at hammering that into a plan with dates, mechanisms, and consequences. 

What to Watch For on Monday

  • Concrete security architecture: timelines, enforcers, and what happens if Russia cheats.
  • A framework document—however skinny—that can be handed to Moscow.
  • A heads-up on the venue and format for a trilateral, if they’re bold enough to go there.
  • Any hint of new pressure on the Kremlin if talks stall.

Bottom line: Monday has to turn talking points into a playbook. Peace isn’t a mood; it’s a mechanism with penalties when someone breaks it.

 

Gaza City Next: Israel Tightens the Noose, Civilians Told to Move—Again

Israel’s Security Cabinet has greenlit an operational plan to capture and control Gaza City. The IDF is pushing troops and armor onto the city’s rim while the Air Force hammers the approaches—classic set-conditions before a ground drive. This is the last big urban prize left outside firm Israeli control, and Jerusalem wants it taken. 

On the ground, orders have gone out for residents in Gaza City neighborhoods—Zeitoun among them—to evacuate south toward Al-Mawasi. Expect the IDF to encircle, choke key corridors, and force population flows out of the fight boxes before armor rolls deeper in. That’s how you clear a city without owning the body count. 

There’s muscle mass assembling to do it. Fresh satellite imagery shows Israeli formations stacking up near the border, while officials talk about an operation “weeks away” and evacuations likely stretching into October. Translation: extended shaping and pressure, then the push. 

Jerusalem’s stated objectives haven’t changed: break Hamas as a fighting and governing force, get the hostages home, and keep a long-term Israeli security hand on the strip without rebuilding the Gaza Civil Administration in IDF uniform. “Control but not govern” is the line—security oversight with some alternative civilian setup riding shotgun.

The humanitarian bill is already staggering, and it will climb. The UN is warning—again—that seizing Gaza City under siege conditions risks another catastrophe in a place where famine, disease, and displacement are already the daily brief. Moving civilians while bombs and shells are in the air is a nightmare even when the maps are clear—and they aren’t. 

What to watch next

  • Encirclement complete? Look for road interdictions and persistent ISR over the city’s eastern and southern gates.
  • Central camps on deck. Israeli talk points to operations beyond Gaza City—Nuseirat, Bureij, Deir al-Balah—if momentum holds.
  • Civilian movement at scale. Fresh evacuation maps and renewed pushes toward Al-Mawasi are the tell.
  • Netanyahu’s end-state. Expect continued framing: Israel keeps the security keys, someone else runs the lights. Whether that “someone” exists is the open question.

Bottom line: Israel is setting the chessboard for a city fight it intends to win on its terms—encircle, squeeze, clear. Unless a political off-ramp appears fast, Gaza City becomes the next hard lesson in urban warfare, with civilians once more paying the highest price.