Morning Brief: Netanyahu Ends US Visit with Unclear Progress on Trump-Backed Gaza Ceasefire, Russia Intercepts 155 Ukrainian Drones in Overnight Barrage

· Guy D. McCardle

Prime Minister Netanyahu speaks with President Trump in the Oval Office. (@IsraeliPM/X)

Good morning, and welcome to your SOFREP Morning Brief for Friday, July 11, 2025. Overnight developments point to growing tensions and shifting alliances across key theaters. Iran may have struck a critical US comms hub in Qatar, Netanyahu leaves Washington without a truce, and the PKK ends its decades-long insurgency. Meanwhile, rare earths are back in the spotlight as the Pentagon moves to secure a domestic supply, and allied forces send a clear warning to North Korea. Here’s the intel you need to start your day sharp.

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Iran Likely Hit US Communications Dome at Al Udeid Air Base in Retaliatory Strike

Satellite imagery confirms that Iran likely struck a key US communications installation during its June 23 missile attack on Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, targeting a geodesic dome housing a secure communications terminal used by the US military.

The attack followed American strikes on nuclear sites in Tehran during the recent 12-day Iran-Israel conflict, and preceded a Trump-brokered ceasefire.

Images analyzed by The Associated Press show the radome intact hours before the strike, and destroyed in post-attack imagery from June 25 onward.

The dome housed a $15 million satellite communications system installed by the 379th Air Expeditionary Wing. Some damage was also visible on an adjacent building, but the rest of the base remained largely intact, likely due to a preemptive US aircraft evacuation and forewarning of the attack.

US President Donald Trump described the Iranian retaliation as a “very weak response,” stating that Iran had fired 14 missiles, 13 of which were intercepted. He credited Iran’s advanced notice for avoiding casualties.

In contrast, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claimed the strike “smashed” the air base, and a senior advisor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei alleged the base’s communications were completely cut.

Neither the US military nor Qatari officials have publicly confirmed the damage.

Analysts believe the radome was likely hit by a bomb-laden drone or missile fragment, marking one of the few significant physical impacts in an otherwise restrained exchange that avoided wider regional escalation.

 

Netanyahu Ends US Visit with Unclear Progress on Trump-Backed Gaza Ceasefire

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu concluded a four-day visit to Washington on Thursday, where talks with President Donald Trump and US officials focused on securing a 60-day ceasefire with Hamas.

While US officials expressed cautious optimism, no breakthrough was announced.

Netanyahu said in a video statement that any truce would be temporary and aimed at securing the release of about half of the remaining 50 Israeli hostages in Gaza, many believed to be dead. He reiterated that Israel’s conditions remain non-negotiable: Hamas must disarm and relinquish governing authority in Gaza.

“If not achieved through negotiations, we will achieve it by force,” he said.

The prime minister also attended a memorial for two Israeli embassy staffers—Yaron Lischinsky and Sarah Lynn Milgrim—who were shot and killed in Washington in May. The suspect, who shouted “Free Palestine,” said he acted “for Gaza.”

Trump believes the war has reached a potential turning point.

US intelligence suggests Hamas’ command structure is significantly degraded, and its main backer, Iran, was recently struck in joint Israeli American raids on nuclear facilities.

Meanwhile, negotiations mediated by Egypt and Qatar continue, with White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Israeli Minister Ron Dermer discussing key hurdles, including Israel’s insistence on maintaining military control over parts of Gaza during any truce.

Trump declined to confirm “secret” talks but said, “We want peace. We want to get the hostages back. And I think we’re close.”

Secretary of State Marco Rubio echoed cautious hope, stating, “We’re closer than we’ve been in quite a while.”

 

PKK Begins Disarmament in Iraq, Ending Decades-Long Armed Struggle with Turkey

Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) fighters began laying down their arms Friday in Iraqi Kurdistan, marking a major step in the group’s transition from insurgency to democratic politics.

The ceremony, held at a secret location near Sulaimaniyah, involved around 30 fighters destroying or burning their weapons as a symbolic end to the PKK’s armed conflict with Turkey.

The disarmament follows the PKK’s formal dissolution in May, ending a 40-year insurgency that began in 1984 and claimed over 40,000 lives. The move aligns with a call by PKK founder Abdullah Ocalan, who remains imprisoned in Turkey, to pursue Kurdish rights through peaceful, political means.

The process stems from months of indirect talks between Ocalan and the Turkish government, with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan endorsing the negotiations. Turkey’s pro-Kurdish DEM party played a key mediation role, and several of its lawmakers were present for Friday’s event.

Ocalan, in a video message this week, urged followers to embrace “the power of politics and social peace.” Erdoğan expressed hope the peace process would accelerate following the PKK’s disarmament and emphasized a desire for the process to succeed without disruption.

The ceremony caps a series of de-escalation steps that began with a PKK ceasefire and signals a historic turning point in one of the Middle East’s longest-running conflicts.

 

UK and France Agree to Return Migrants as Part of Border Control Crackdown

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron announced a pilot agreement Thursday to return some migrants crossing the English Channel back to France.

The “one in, one out” deal allows Britain to send back select migrants arriving illegally via small boats while agreeing to accept an equal number of vetted asylum seekers from France.

The plan, set to begin in the coming weeks, aims to deter dangerous crossings that have surged 56% this year, with over 21,000 arrivals.

Starmer emphasized the initiative as a breakthrough in restoring border control, while Macron framed it as a step toward deterring smugglers and enhancing bilateral cooperation. The agreement follows years of tension over migrant flows and comes amid renewed Franco-British cooperation after post-Brexit strains.

The plan coincides with a broader summit in London, where the two leaders also signed defense agreements, including coordination of nuclear deterrents and enhanced support for Ukraine. The summit featured a historic pledge to align responses to extreme threats and laid the groundwork for future NATO-backed actions.

Additionally, Starmer and Macron joined a virtual planning session for a post-war international stabilization force in Ukraine. US officials, including Trump envoy Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg and senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal, joined for the first time.

The group agreed to base its headquarters in Paris to prepare for rapid deployment once hostilities in Ukraine cease.

 

Russia Intercepts 155 Ukrainian Drones in Overnight Barrage; Civilian Casualties Reported on Both Sides

Russia claimed Friday that its air defense systems intercepted 155 Ukrainian fixed-wing drones in an overnight barrage, with most of the drones—53—shot down over the border region of Kursk.

The Russian Defense Ministry said the attack occurred between 11:00 p.m. Thursday and 7:00 a.m. Friday.

Local officials reported at least two civilian deaths. In Lipetsk, a drone struck an agricultural site, causing a fire that killed one person and wounded another. In Tula, another drone strike killed one person and injured one more.

In Ukraine, Russian attacks continued to inflict damage and casualties. A missile strike on Chuguiv in the Kharkiv region destroyed two homes and damaged a hospital, wounding three people. In Kyiv, 28 people—including two children—were injured by Russian shelling on Thursday, according to the city’s military administration.

The wave of drone activity comes amid a spike in Russian air assaults, with the past week seeing the most intense missile and drone barrages since the war began in February 2022. Both sides continue to escalate aerial operations in a war that shows no signs of de-escalation.

 

Pentagon Takes Stake in US Rare Earth Company MP Materials to Boost Domestic Supply Chain

Las Vegas-based MP Materials announced a landmark agreement Thursday with the Department of Defense (DoD) that grants the Pentagon a 15% ownership stake in exchange for billions in manufacturing investments aimed at revitalizing the US rare earth industry.

The deal includes a $400 million Pentagon purchase of MP preferred stock—convertible to common stock—making the DoD the company’s largest shareholder.

The funding will support construction of a second rare earth magnet manufacturing facility and expansion of operations at MP’s Mountain Pass site in California, currently the only large-scale rare earth mining and processing facility in North America.

Rare earth elements are vital to US defense systems, electronics, and electric vehicles. China currently controls nearly 70% of global production, raising alarm in Washington over American supply chain vulnerabilities.

Under the 10-year agreement, the Pentagon set a $110/kg price floor for MP’s products and committed to buying 100% of output from the new facility, expected to begin operations in 2028 with a 10,000-metric-ton capacity.

MP Materials described the deal as a “transformational public-private partnership” that strengthens American industrial resilience and secures critical supply chains.

The company’s stock surged 50.6% following the announcement.

 

Rubio Meets Chinese Foreign Minister at Southeast Asia Summit

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio held a high stakes meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Friday in Malaysia, wrapping up his first Asia trip and signaling intensifying diplomatic jockeying between Washington and Beijing.

The face-to-face came on the sidelines of the ASEAN Regional Forum, less than 24 hours after Rubio met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to discuss Ukraine peace efforts.

Rubio and Wang did not issue public remarks, but the meeting underscored deep tensions over trade, security, and China’s support for Russia’s war in Ukraine. Rubio accused Beijing of covertly assisting Russia’s military-industrial efforts, saying China helps Moscow “as much as they can without getting caught.”

The summit took place amid growing discontent over US trade policies.

US President Donald Trump has threatened sweeping tariffs, including against several ASEAN states. While Rubio acknowledged those concerns, he said regional partners showed enthusiasm for US engagement, particularly in countering China’s influence in the South China Sea and Taiwan.

In contrast, Wang Yi used the summit to criticize US tariffs and promote China as a stabilizing force, telling Southeast Asian counterparts that Washington was undermining free trade and global supply chains.

China and Russia issued a joint warning against perceived US interference in Asia, urging support for ASEAN-led regional cooperation and denouncing powers that “create divisions and instigate confrontation.”

Despite competing messages, Rubio secured backing from key allies. Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong emphasized that sustained US presence in the region is vital to maintaining balance and preventing coercion. She also noted Australia’s intent to engage China diplomatically while preserving regional stability.

Rubio’s final engagements included reaffirming civil nuclear cooperation with Malaysia, signaling Washington’s intent to deepen strategic ties despite economic frictions. The summit marked the latest chapter in the ongoing US-China rivalry playing out across the Indo-Pacific.

 

US, South Korea, Japan Hold Joint Drill, Warn North Korea Amid Deepening Ties with Russia

Top military leaders from South Korea, the United States, and Japan met in Seoul on Friday and urged North Korea to halt all unlawful activities threatening regional stability.

The warning came as the three allies conducted a joint aerial exercise near South Korea’s Jeju Island, involving US nuclear-capable B-52H bombers, in a show of force against Pyongyang’s growing nuclear and missile threats.

The trilateral meeting also addressed increasing North Korea-Russia military cooperation.

Officials raised alarm over Pyongyang’s reported deployment of troops and ammunition to aid Russia’s war in Ukraine in exchange for economic support and possible military technology transfers that could bolster North Korea’s weapons programs.

Joint Chiefs of Staff chairmen Gen. Kim Myung-soo (South Korea), Gen. Dan Caine (US), and Gen. Yoshida Yoshihide (Japan) reaffirmed their commitment to counter North Korea’s provocations and enhance trilateral defense cooperation.

Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov began a three-day visit to North Korea for the second round of “strategic dialogue” with North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui.

Lavrov’s trip follows speculation that it may lay the groundwork for another visit by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to Russia.

North Korea, which often labels US-led military drills as invasion rehearsals, has yet to respond with new missile tests. However, the growing North Korea-Russia military axis continues to raise concern across the Indo-Pacific.

 

Sources: News Agencies