Evening Brief: NATO Needs More Long-Range Missiles to Counter Expanding Russian Arsenal, Nearly 10 Million Displaced by War in Ukraine

· Guy D. McCardle

Soldiers during a live-fire training exercise. (@USArmyEURAF/X)

Good evening — it’s Friday, July 11, 2025, and the headlines are anything but quiet. As the week closes, Gaza’s aid crisis intensifies under global scrutiny, Sudan slips deeper into chaos, and Ukraine hits back inside Russia. From a key US court ruling on 9/11 suspects to rising North Korea-Russia military ties and fresh warnings from the US Navy in the Pacific, tonight’s SOFREP Evening Brief brings you the key updates from the world’s most volatile flashpoints. Let’s dive in.

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Nearly 800 Killed Near Gaza Aid Sites as US-Backed Aid Model Faces Scrutiny, UN Reports

The United Nations Human Rights reported Friday that at least 798 Palestinians have been killed over the past six weeks near aid distribution points and convoys in Gaza, including 615 fatalities near sites operated by the US- and Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF).

The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) labeled the GHF’s private-sector-led aid model “inherently unsafe” and a violation of humanitarian impartiality.

The GHF, which bypasses UN-led systems and uses US security and logistics contractors, began delivering aid in late May after an 11-week Israeli blockade. It denies the UN death toll and claims that “the [deadliest] attacks on aid sites have been linked to UN convoys.”

GHF says it has delivered over 70 million meals and blames Hamas and local criminal groups for widespread looting of other humanitarian shipments.

The OHCHR said most injuries near GHF sites involved gunshot wounds and warned of potential atrocity crimes. Spokesperson Ravina Shamdasani urged investigations rather than “blanket dismissals” of civilian deaths.


The Israeli military acknowledged mass casualty events and said it is reviewing recent incidents. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) stated it had taken steps to reduce friction near aid routes by installing fences, signs, and opening new access points.

The humanitarian crisis in Gaza continues to worsen 21 months into Israel’s military campaign, which began after the October 7th Hamas-led cross-border attack. Most of Gaza’s 2.3 million people are displaced, and food remains critically scarce.

UN agencies report widespread interception of aid trucks by desperate civilians, further complicating relief efforts.

 

Israel Signals Continued Support for UN as Primary Humanitarian Channel in Gaza

Israeli officials have reaffirmed their desire for the United Nations to remain the primary channel for humanitarian aid deliveries in Gaza, according to Carl Skau, deputy executive director of the World Food Programme (WFP).

Following meetings with Israeli authorities last week, Skau stated Friday that there was “no discussion” of the controversial US-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), which operates outside UN systems.

“They wanted the UN to continue to be the main track for delivery, especially should there be a ceasefire,” Skau said.

He added that Israel asked the WFP to prepare to scale up operations in the event of a truce.

The statement comes amid US-, Egypt-, and Qatar-led efforts to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Hamas has named aid flow as a key sticking point in negotiations.

The UN has openly criticized the GHF, accusing it of undermining humanitarian neutrality and contributing to forced displacement. The GHF, which uses private US contractors for security and logistics, claims to have delivered over 70 million meals since launching in late May, shortly after Israel lifted an 11-week blockade.

While the US supports the GHF model, the UN maintains its own distribution system is more effective and stabilized aid flows during the last ceasefire.

Despite past disputes over aid interference and looting, the UN asserts its delivery model works—especially during pauses in fighting—and continues to urge steady access and secure delivery routes to prevent further humanitarian collapse in Gaza.

 

Sudan Conflict Intensifies in Kordofan as RSF Targets Civilians, Humanitarian Crisis Deepens

Fighting between the Sudanese Army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) escalated this week in Sudan’s North Kordofan region, with RSF artillery strikes on El-Obeid killing at least four civilians, including women and the elderly, according to the Sudan Doctors’ Network.

The shelling hit densely populated neighborhoods filled with displaced families.

El-Obeid, once an RSF stronghold, was recaptured by the Sudanese military in February, reopening vital supply routes and reinforcing the 5th Infantry Division’s base in the region. The latest violence displaced around 700 households between July 4 and July 9, according to the International Organization for Migration.

Sudan’s civil war began in April 2023 and has killed over 40,000 people and displaced more than 10 million. The conflict has now heavily concentrated in Kordofan and Darfur, where civilians face roadblocks, famine, and collapsing access to food, water, and medical care.

Mercy Corps described the Kordofan region as the epicenter of the conflict. In South Kordofan’s capital, Kadugli, residents live under siege with severed supply lines. Meanwhile, attacks continue in Darfur, where UNICEF reported a 46% spike in child malnutrition between January and May 2025 compared to last year.

The International Criminal Court (ICC) believes war crimes and crimes against humanity are ongoing in Darfur, according to Deputy Prosecutor Nazhat Shameem Khan’s address to the UN Security Council.

The worsening violence continues to fuel Sudan’s rapidly deteriorating humanitarian crisis.

 

US Appeals Court Blocks 9/11 Guilty Pleas That Would Have Spared Death Penalty

A US federal appeals court ruled Friday that the Pentagon had legal authority to cancel plea deals for Khalid Sheikh Mohammed—the accused mastermind of the September 11, 2001 attacks—and two co-defendants, effectively blocking efforts to resolve their military prosecutions without the death penalty.

The DC Circuit Court of Appeals’ 2-1 decision overturned lower military rulings that had upheld the plea agreements.

Judges Patricia Millett and Neomi Rao wrote that then-Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin acted within his authority when he revoked the deals in 2023, stating that “the families and the American public deserve the opportunity to see military commission trials carried out.”

The plea deals had been approved by the Guantanamo court overseer but were withdrawn after political backlash. The Biden administration supported the reversal, continuing a challenge initiated under President Donald Trump.

The military judge overseeing the case had previously ruled Austin lacked authority to intervene, a position now rejected by the appellate court.

Judge Robert Wilkins dissented, calling the ruling “stunning” and arguing that military courts should have final say on interpreting military legal procedures.

Attorneys for the defendants have not ruled out appealing to the US Supreme Court. Mohammed, held at Guantanamo Bay since 2006, is accused of orchestrating the 9/11 hijackings that killed nearly 3,000 people in America’s deadliest terrorist attack. The case has been mired in legal delays for over two decades.

 

Command Master Chief Phillip Waldron Named 15th Master Chief Petty Officer of the Coast Guard

Command Master Chief Phillip Waldron has been selected as the 15th Master Chief Petty Officer of the Coast Guard (MCPOCG), the service’s top enlisted position.

Waldron, currently serving at the Personnel Service Center in Washington, DC, will assume his new role on July 25 during a change of watch ceremony in Alexandria, Virginia.

A native of Plant City, Florida, and second-generation Coast Guardsman, Waldron enlisted in 1999 as a machinery technician. Over a 26-year career, he served aboard several cutters, including the Buckthorn, Wrangell, and Adak in Bahrain. While in the Middle East, he conducted 40 high-risk boardings and was named USO’s 2008 “Coast Guardsman of the Year.”

Waldron has held numerous leadership roles, including command master chief for the 17th (Arctic) District and Base Kodiak. His qualifications include small boat coxswain, cutterman, boat forces operations, and company commander. His awards include the Meritorious Service Medal, four Coast Guard Commendation Medals, and the Iraq Campaign Medal.

Waldron will succeed Master Chief Petty Officer Heath Jones, who has served since 2022.

Acting Coast Guard Commandant Kevin Lunday, who announced Waldron’s appointment, praised his operational and leadership experience. Lunday, nominated as the permanent commandant following Adm. Linda Fagan’s dismissal, awaits Senate confirmation.

 

US General: NATO Needs More Long-Range Missiles to Counter Expanding Russian Arsenal

NATO must boost its long-range missile capabilities to deter a growing Russian threat, according to Major General John Rafferty, who warned that Moscow is increasing its investment in long-range weapons and advanced air defenses.

Rafferty, recently the commander of the US Army’s 56th Artillery Command in Germany, said Russia’s effective use of such missiles in Ukraine highlights the need for NATO to modernize and expand its own arsenal.

“The Russian army is bigger today than when the war in Ukraine began,” Rafferty said, emphasizing that more alliance capability is urgently needed to destroy high-value targets deep behind enemy lines.

Europe currently relies heavily on US firepower—up to 90% of NATO’s long-range missile capabilities—according to missile analyst Fabian Hoffmann. US systems like the Tomahawk and the developmental hypersonic Dark Eagle are slated for temporary deployment in Germany beginning in 2026, under a prior agreement between Berlin and Washington.

With Trump back in the White House, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius plans to seek clarification from US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on whether the deployments will proceed as scheduled.

European nations, meanwhile, are accelerating their own long-range strike initiatives.

France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Britain, and Sweden are collaborating on the European Long-Range Strike Approach (ELSA), which includes development of a ground-launched missile with a range of over 2,000 kilometers (1,243 miles).

Existing European systems—such as Britain’s Storm Shadow, France’s Scalp, and Germany’s Taurus—have more limited ranges but remain vital to NATO’s deterrence posture.

Russia has condemned the planned US deployments in Germany, calling them a national security threat, while continuing to justify its 2022 invasion of Ukraine by citing NATO expansion.

US and NATO officials maintain that bolstering long-range strike capabilities is essential to prevent further Russian aggression in Europe.

 

US Sells Arms to NATO Allies for Rapid Ukraine Transfers as Russian Attacks Escalate

The US is supplying weapons to NATO allies in Europe so they can quickly transfer them to Ukraine, President Donald Trump confirmed Thursday, amid intensifying Russian missile and drone attacks.

Trump emphasized that NATO allies are covering the costs: “NATO is paying for those weapons, 100%.”

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Friday that sending weapons already stationed in Europe is faster than shipping from US factories. European countries will then buy American replacements under financial agreements with Washington.

Ukraine is urgently requesting 10 additional US-made Patriot air defense systems to combat a surge in Russian airstrikes. Germany has pledged two systems, while Norway has committed one. Germany, Spain, and other NATO countries also hold Patriots in their inventories and are being encouraged to provide them to Ukraine.

The push comes as Russia escalates both air and ground attacks. Earlier this week, Moscow launched over 700 drones at Ukraine—its third record-breaking aerial assault in two weeks. On Friday, a Russian drone strike hit Kharkiv, injuring nine and damaging a maternity hospital. Another drone attack injured nine people in Odesa.

June marked the deadliest month for Ukrainian civilians in the past three years, with 232 killed and 1,343 wounded, according to the UN Russia reportedly launched 10 times more drones and missiles in June than the same period last year.

To boost defense, Kyiv launched the “Clear Sky” project, a $6.2 million initiative to develop and deploy Ukrainian-made interceptor drones and mobile air defense units. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged international partners to finance production, stating that Ukraine’s engineers had already found an effective technical solution.

Zelenskyy described his recent talks with Trump as “very constructive” and reiterated the need for immediate and sustained Western support.

 

Ukrainian Drones Strike Russian Fighter Jet, Missile Plants in Moscow and Tula Regions

Ukraine claimed responsibility Friday for drone strikes targeting two key Russian military-industrial sites, including a MiG fighter jet factory in Lukhovitsy, southeast of Moscow, and a missile production facility in the Tula region.

Ukraine’s military claimed that the attacks triggered explosions and fires at both locations.

The targeted Tula site—Russia’s Instrument Design Bureau—produces anti-aircraft missiles and missile-gun systems. Ukraine’s military said the strikes are part of ongoing efforts to erode Russia’s military and economic capacity.

Russia’s Defense Ministry reported downing 155 Ukrainian drones overnight, including 11 headed toward Moscow. Tula Governor Dmitry Milyaev said one person was killed and another injured in the Ukrainian attack on his region.

The battlefield in Ukraine remains static, but both sides continue to carry out deep strikes across enemy territory in a war that has entered its fourth year.

Claims from both sides remain unverified by independent sources.

 

UN: Nearly 10 Million Displaced by War in Ukraine, Urges Continued Global Support

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has displaced nearly 10 million people since 2022, with 3.8 million internally displaced and 5.6 million fleeing abroad, according to Karolina Lindholm Billing, the UN refugee agency’s representative for Ukraine.

Despite the war’s escalation, most displaced Ukrainians prefer to remain near their home regions.

Speaking Friday, Lindholm Billing emphasized the need for sustained international aid to support both humanitarian response and early recovery. She said the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and local partners continue to assist civilians affected by daily aerial attacks, especially in frontline areas and cities like Kyiv and Kharkiv.

The update came as global leaders convened in Rome for the Ukraine Recovery Conference, where European officials announced more than €10 billion ($12 billion) in reconstruction investments. The European Commission also launched the European Flagship Fund, the largest equity fund dedicated to Ukraine’s rebuilding.

Meanwhile, nations planning to contribute troops to a future stabilization force in Ukraine agreed to establish a headquarters in Paris to enable rapid post-war deployment.

Russia’s air campaign has intensified, with June marking the deadliest month in three years—232 civilians killed and 1,343 wounded. The UN reported a tenfold increase in Russian drone and missile attacks compared to June 2023.

With another harsh winter approaching, UNHCR is developing a winter response plan in coordination with Ukraine’s government. It will include cash aid to help vulnerable households in damaged frontline areas pay for heating supplies like coal and firewood.

“We know the cold weather adds another layer of risk,” Lindholm Billing said, stressing that both national energy infrastructure and individual households will need urgent support.

 

North Korea Supplying 40% of Russia’s Ammo, Ukraine Reports

North Korea now supplies up to 40% of Russia’s ammunition used in Ukraine, according to Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine’s military intelligence chief.

In addition to artillery, Pyongyang has also shipped ballistic missiles and systems to Russia, receiving cash and military technology in return. Budanov attributed 60% of recent intelligence unit losses to North Korean-made artillery and described the flow of arms as “ongoing around the clock.”

The growing Russia-North Korea axis deepened after President Vladimir Putin signed a strategic partnership treaty with Kim Jong Un in June 2023. North Korea has since reportedly sent millions of artillery rounds and deployed troops to Russian border regions.

Top Russian officials, including Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Security Council aide Sergei Shoigu, have made multiple visits to Pyongyang, reinforcing military ties.

Budanov stressed the need for a ceasefire before year’s end and said negotiations must include Ukraine, Russia, and the US. He believes Russia’s ambitions in Donetsk are unrealistic and noted Kremlin forces are focused on declaring a symbolic buffer zone in Dnipropetrovsk.

Now in his fifth year leading Ukraine’s military intelligence, Budanov remains a key figure in the war effort, despite being wounded multiple times and surviving Kremlin-linked assassination attempts. He emphasized strong intelligence ties with Western agencies and urged allies to revive human intelligence capabilities alongside technical methods.

“My dream is to stop this war,” Budanov said. “Ukraine is a country of opportunities. In future, I’ll decide what I would like to do.”

 

US Pacific Fleet Commander Slams China’s “Bullying Tactics” in South China Sea, Vows Stronger Deterrence

US Pacific Fleet Commander Adm. Stephen Koehler warned Friday that China’s aggressive actions in the South China Sea have failed to intimidate rival claimant states and reaffirmed America’s readiness to bolster regional deterrence with allies.

Speaking at a forum in Manila, Koehler condemned Beijing’s use of ramming, water cannons, and lasers, calling them “bullying tactics” that have not broken Southeast Asian resolve.

Koehler praised the resilience of regional nations—highlighting Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, and the Philippines—for defending their sovereign rights despite Chinese pressure. He emphasized that the US Pacific Fleet stands ready to support maritime partners and ensure free passage in the Indo-Pacific, stressing that deterrence has so far prevented wider conflict.

The forum marked the ninth anniversary of the 2016 international arbitration ruling that invalidated China’s sweeping maritime claims. China has rejected the decision and continues to ignore it.

US Ambassador MaryKay Carlson called the ruling a landmark for upholding international law, warning that the US remains bound by its Mutual Defense Treaty with the Philippines should Filipino forces be attacked in the disputed waters.

Philippine Foreign Secretary Theresa Lazaro said Manila is enhancing territorial defense and pushing legislation to define its maritime boundaries but remains open to talks with Beijing to manage tensions.

Chinese and Philippine officials are set to meet later this month in another round of discussions aimed at avoiding further escalation.

 

Sources: News Agencies