Morning Brief: Putin Pushes Iran Toward ‘Zero Enrichment’ Nuclear Deal, Pacific Allies Train to Fight China

· Guy D. McCardle

Two men smiling like old friends—one’s quietly dismantling Ukraine, the other’s clinging to uranium like it's a birthright. Image Credit: Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader via AP

Putin Pushes Tehran Toward a Nuclear Dead End—With a Smile

Vladimir Putin’s been whispering in Tehran’s ear again. This time, it’s about nukes—and not the kind that flatten cities. According to European officials, Putin is privately urging Iran to take a U.S.-proposed nuclear deal that would force them to stop enriching uranium entirely. That’s right—zero enrichment. No 60%, no 3.67%, not even a hint of nuclear spice in their centrifuges.

This would be a major pivot for Moscow. For years, Russia has backed Iran’s right to enrich under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), playing the nuclear defense attorney in global court. But now, Putin seems more interested in playing middleman between Washington and Tehran. Why? Because sanctions bite, and the Middle East teeters on a knife’s edge—with oil prices and global markets watching every tremor.

Putin’s new message to Iran? Drop the enrichment and play nice, and maybe the Americans will too. To sweeten the deal, Russia is reportedly offering to haul away Iran’s stash of enriched uranium and supply them with the low-enriched fuel they’d need for civilian reactors. It’s a classic Kremlin swap: give us the problem, we give you plausible deniability and a few tons of nuclear Cheerios.

But Tehran isn’t buying it.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and his crew have made it crystal clear: enrichment is non-negotiable. It’s about sovereignty, pride, and leverage. Iran views this push as a thinly veiled attempt to neuter its strategic posture, and they’re not budging—at least not publicly.

Complicating matters further, Iran’s been quietly annoyed with Moscow. Despite shipping drones to aid Russia’s war effort in Ukraine, Tehran has gotten lukewarm support from Putin during its skirmishes with Israel. That dissonance might explain why Russia is now playing diplomat instead of loyal ally. It’s less about friendship and more about leverage—on both fronts.

Publicly, the Kremlin still mouths support for Iran’s nuclear rights and condemns Western pressure. But behind the scenes, Putin’s whispering a different tune: stop the enrichment, cut a deal with the U.S., and let Russia walk away looking like the adult in the room.

Iranian media have, of course, dismissed the whole thing as fantasy. Moscow hasn’t denied it, but they haven’t confirmed it either. That silence speaks volumes.

So what does this all mean? It means Russia is shifting gears. Putin wants to be seen as the steady hand in a region burning at the seams. Whether that’s to ease sanctions, stabilize oil markets, or just score diplomatic points—he’s willing to play both sides. The question is whether Iran will blink. So far, they’re not even flinching.

 

Down Under and Dug In: Training for a Future Fight with China

Australia isn’t just throwing another shrimp on the barbie—they’re digging trenches and calling in the cavalry. As of July 13, the Aussies have kicked off Talisman Sabre 2025, their biggest and boldest military exercise yet. It’s not just an Australian show, either. Over 35,000 troops from 19 countries—think U.S., Japan, and a grab bag of Pacific partners—are crawling over the continent, rehearsing for a fight nobody wants but everyone’s quietly preparing for: a war with China.

This isn’t your average war game. We’re talking joint operations on land, sea, air, space, and even cyberspace. Amphibious assaults, long-range missiles, and multi-domain warfare are all on the menu. It’s tailor-made for the kind of mess that could erupt over Taiwan or the South China Sea. Officially, no one’s saying “We’re training to fight China,” but the writing’s on the wall in thick black ink. Australian officials are careful with their language, but the scenarios being played out scream one thing: if Beijing makes a move, we’ll be ready.

China’s watching, of course. They always are. They’ve got eyes in the sky, boats in the water, and probably a few folks poking around trying to sniff out intel. But the Aussies and their allies have their countermeasures in place. This isn’t their first rodeo.

The broader picture? China’s been making moves in the South Pacific—trying to secure military outposts, sweet-talking small island nations, and generally playing a long game of influence. That hasn’t gone unnoticed. These drills are part muscle-flex, part warning: the Pacific isn’t up for grabs.

Importantly, Australia isn’t pledging troops in advance to any future conflict. They’ve made it clear—if the balloon goes up, the government of the day will decide how to respond. But make no mistake: these exercises are about making sure that, if the time comes, everyone on Team Indo-Pacific can shoot, move, and communicate like a well-oiled machine.

If peace holds, great. But if not? The training wheels are off.

 

Surgeon Killed as Israeli Airstrike Hits Crowded Gaza Market

On Sunday evening, July 13, Israeli warplanes launched a strike on a packed marketplace in central Gaza City, killing at least 12 Palestinians. The blast tore through the Al-Daraj neighborhood, one of the most densely populated areas in Gaza, near the busy Ramzon al-Samer area. Among the dead was Dr. Ahmad Qandil, a respected general surgeon at Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital. His name is added to a growing list of casualties that’s stretching into tragic territory.

Dozens more were wounded in the attack, many of them civilians out buying food and supplies in a war zone that no longer has safe zones. This market strike is part of a larger wave of attacks across Gaza that same day, with medical sources reporting at least 50 killed since morning. The numbers are getting harder to comprehend—more than 57,800 Palestinians have died since October 2023, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry. That includes thousands of women and children. And with so many buried beneath rubble, that death toll may be a floor, not a ceiling.

Rescue efforts are often blocked by more incoming fire. Emergency crews can’t reach collapsed buildings because the airstrikes don’t stop long enough for them to breathe. All of this is happening as international pressure mounts. The UN Security Council, the International Court of Justice—everyone with a podium is calling for a ceasefire. But so far, the bombs keep falling, and civilians like Dr. Qandil keep paying the price.