Evening Brief: Hamas Signals Openness to Gaza Ceasefire Talks, Ukraine Pursues Joint Weapons Production

· Guy D. McCardle

IDF soldiers in Gaza during Operation Gideon's Chariots 25, May 25, 2025. (IDF Telegram Channel/Wikimedia Commons)

Tonight’s briefing is all about brinkmanship and recalibration. Iran shuts out nuclear inspectors as it weighs its next move, Hamas signals it might talk truce while Israel doubles down, and US contractors face scrutiny over violence in Gaza aid lines. In Europe, Macron and Putin break their long silence, Ukraine scrambles for new arms deals as American weapons dry up, and the Navy readies its biggest global war drill yet. Here’s your essential intel to wrap up the day, July 2, 2025.

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Iran Halts Nuclear Watchdog Cooperation After US-Israeli Strikes on Nuclear Facilities

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian ordered the suspension of cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on Wednesday, following recent US and Israeli airstrikes on key nuclear sites.

The move, backed by Iran’s parliament and top security bodies, comes amid rising tensions over Tehran’s nuclear ambitions and further limits international oversight of its uranium enrichment program.

The suspension, enacted under Iran’s Nonproliferation Treaty commitments, will remain in place until Iran deems its nuclear facilities and scientists secure. While the IAEA confirmed its inspectors are still in the country, it awaits formal communication on the scope of the suspension.

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar condemned Iran’s decision, calling it a breach of international obligations and urging European powers to trigger the “snapback” clause of the 2015 nuclear deal to reimpose full United Nations sanctions.

Despite the move, Iran stopped short of fully withdrawing from the Nonproliferation Treaty or openly pursuing nuclear weapons, as some analysts feared. Tehran continues to insist its nuclear program is peaceful, even as it enriches uranium to 60%—just below weapons-grade levels—and maintains enough stockpile material to build multiple bombs if it chooses.

The suspension follows a series of Israeli airstrikes beginning June 13 that killed hundreds, including senior Iranian military figures, and hit Iran’s ballistic missile arsenals and nuclear infrastructure. Satellite imagery shows damage assessments underway at the Fordo nuclear site, targeted by US bunker-busting bombs on June 22.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi signaled in an interview that Iran remains open to diplomacy, despite dismissing President Trump’s claim that talks could resume soon. “The doors of diplomacy will never slam shut,” he said.

Iran’s retaliatory posture highlights its escalating response to Western military pressure while leaving room for potential negotiations. Observers now await how Washington and European capitals will respond to Tehran’s defiance of nuclear monitoring protocols.

 

Hamas Signals Openness to Gaza Ceasefire Talks as Israel Maintains Hardline Stance

Hamas and Israel laid out competing conditions Wednesday ahead of expected talks on a US-backed Gaza ceasefire proposal, with Hamas indicating a willingness to engage and Israel reaffirming its commitment to defeating the group entirely.

Neither side formally accepted the 60-day ceasefire plan announced by US President Donald Trump on Tuesday.

Hamas officials said they are “ready and serious” about a deal but emphasized any agreement must end the war and include full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, however, reiterated that “there will be no Hamas” in postwar Gaza and rejected any ceasefire that doesn’t lead to Hamas’ disarmament, surrender, and exile.

The proposed ceasefire includes a partial Israeli withdrawal, increased humanitarian aid, and talks toward ending the conflict, though Israel has not committed to concluding the war. A Hamas delegation is expected to meet with Egyptian and Qatari mediators in Cairo to discuss the plan.

Trump warned Hamas that the deal “will not get better” and pushed for a resolution. US officials hope the proposed truce can serve as a turning point in the nearly 21-month conflict.

Meanwhile, Israeli airstrikes killed 40 people across Gaza on Wednesday, including women and children, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry. The war has now killed over 57,000 people in the territory, displaced 90% of Gaza’s population, and devastated critical infrastructure.

Additional Israeli strikes hit displaced civilians near schools and hospitals, further compounding the humanitarian crisis.

Israel said it also eliminated two Hamas members allegedly involved in a deadly June 24 attack that killed seven Israeli soldiers.

As ceasefire negotiations loom, the battlefield remains active and deadly, with both sides locked in a political and military stalemate.

 

American Contractors in Gaza Accused of Using Live Fire, Stun Grenades at Food Aid Sites

US contractors guarding Gaza aid distribution centers have fired live ammunition, stun grenades, and pepper spray at desperate Palestinians seeking food, according to testimonies and videos obtained by The Associated Press (AP).

The footage and internal reports reveal chaotic, sometimes violent scenes at sites run by the US-based Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), a newly formed group backed by Israel and recently funded with $30 million from the US government.

Two whistleblower contractors said many guards were undertrained, unvetted, and operated with little oversight. They described security teams firing into the air, ground, and occasionally into crowds. One contractor said he believed a Palestinian was hit. Videos show pepper spray, stun grenades, and apparent live fire used even when there was no clear threat.

Internal documents reveal that injuries occurred in 31% of food distributions in June. Contractors reportedly used dozens of stun grenades and canisters of pepper spray per day. In one video, contractors are heard celebrating after gunfire erupts near Palestinians. Another shows a woman injured by a stun grenade fragment.

GHF and its logistics subcontractor, Safe Reach Solutions (SRS), deny using excessive force and claim no serious injuries have occurred. They maintain the environment is secure and necessary crowd control measures are used. However, internal communications show even SRS acknowledged frequent injuries.

AP forensic experts confirmed that several videos captured live gunfire within 50-60 meters of the camera. The footage also suggests a control room monitors facial recognition feeds, reportedly staffed by American analysts and Israeli soldiers, though GHF denies conducting intelligence operations.

The contractors criticized the rushed rollout, saying many guards lacked combat experience and training. Weapons safety checks were minimal, and some staff didn’t properly calibrate their firearms. One internal email described the operation as “not sustainable” and “not safe.”

Israel claims it is not involved in operations at the aid sites, though it controls access to the areas. It denies targeting civilians and says any live fire was meant as warning shots. Palestinian accounts, however, describe daily gunfire from Israeli troops near the centers.

Since the war began on October 7, 2023, over 57,000 Palestinians have been killed, and Gaza remains on the brink of famine.

GHF replaced an UN-led aid system after Israel claimed Hamas was diverting supplies. The current approach has drawn criticism from human rights observers and raised alarms over the militarization of humanitarian aid.

The contractors warned that if GHF operations continue in their current form, more innocent lives will be lost. “There are innocent people being hurt. Badly. Needlessly,” one said.

 

Macron and Putin Reopen Direct Communication After Nearly Three Years, Discuss Iran and Ukraine

French President Emmanuel Macron and Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke Tuesday for the first time since September 2022, in a two-hour call initiated by France that focused on tensions in the Middle East and Russia’s war in Ukraine.

The rare direct contact marks a potential diplomatic shift, though both sides remain entrenched in their positions.

The leaders primarily discussed Iran and broader regional stability, with both nations citing their roles on the UN Security Council. Macron pressed for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine, while Putin reiterated Moscow’s claim that Western nations triggered the war by ignoring Russian security concerns.

The Kremlin cast the call as evidence that Western efforts to isolate Russia are failing. French officials characterized it as a necessary step to maintain European diplomatic relevance, especially amid uncertainty over future US policy under Donald Trump.

Macron once shared a close rapport with Putin, hosting him in Versailles in 2017 and even co-signing an art exhibition catalog in 2021. That dynamic soured after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Macron has since become a vocal backer of sanctions and increased aid to Kyiv, drawing scorn from Russian officials and media.

Experts remain divided on whether the renewed dialogue signals a thaw or mere strategic necessity. Moscow’s analysts remain cautious, while French commentators argue that Europe must either engage or risk ceding influence on Washington.

For now, the Macron-Putin call appears less a diplomatic breakthrough and more a high-level reset in a deeply fractured relationship.

 

Ukraine Pursues Joint Weapons Production Amid US Aid Cuts and Russian Offensives

Ukraine is accelerating plans to jointly produce weapons with international allies as US support wanes and Russian forces intensify attacks.

Ukrainian officials issued warnings Wednesday following Washington’s decision to halt shipments of key arms, including Patriot missiles, Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS), Hellfires, and Howitzer rounds—previously committed under the Biden administration.

Kyiv’s Defense Ministry said it received no formal notice of the suspensions and has requested clarification from US officials.

Foreign Ministry officials emphasized that any delays in defense aid will embolden Russian aggression.

Ukraine also summoned the US chargé d’affaires to stress the urgency of maintaining air defense supplies.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine is preparing for meetings with European Union (EU) partners to advance weapons production partnerships. Defense Minister Rustem Umerov announced draft legislation to enable joint manufacturing with allied countries, including building facilities domestically and abroad under favorable legal and tax terms.

Denmark, now holding the EU’s rotating presidency, is taking a lead role by investing directly in Ukraine’s defense sector and allowing Ukrainian firms to manufacture military gear on Danish soil. The first such facilities could be operational by September. Germany also pledged support, with officials and defense industry reps visiting Kyiv this week to discuss boosting Ukraine’s arms output.

While Europe has now surpassed the US in total military aid—€72 billion ($77.76 billion) versus €65 billion ($70.20 billion)—it still lacks the capacity to replace US-made systems like HIMARS and Patriots. Analysts warn these systems remain critical to defending Ukrainian cities from intensified Russian missile and drone strikes.

Meanwhile, Russia views the US aid halt as a potential shift in the war. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said fewer weapons for Ukraine bring the conflict closer to resolution.

Despite stalled peace efforts, Ukraine is holding its defensive lines and doubling down on domestic arms production to maintain its warfighting capability.

 

Trump Administration Pauses Key US Weapons Shipments to Ukraine Over Stockpile Concerns

The Trump administration is halting delivery of several critical weapons systems to Ukraine, including Patriot missiles, Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS), Hellfires, Howitzer rounds, AIM-7 Sparrows, Stingers, and AT-4 grenade launchers, amid Pentagon concerns about depleted US stockpiles, officials confirmed Wednesday.

Defense Undersecretary Elbridge Colby said the decision is part of a broader reassessment aimed at preserving US military readiness while still giving President Trump “robust options” to aid Ukraine and push for an end to the war.

The pause has drawn bipartisan criticism on Capitol Hill. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA) called the move “unacceptable” and demanded a White House briefing. Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH) warned the suspension jeopardizes Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against Russian airstrikes, emphasizing that “there are no parallel defensive alternatives” to US-made systems like the Patriot.

The decision follows one of the largest Russian aerial attacks on Ukraine in over three years and comes shortly after Trump brokered a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. The Pentagon has also been deploying air defense systems across the Middle East, including to Qatar, where US forces recently intercepted an Iranian missile barrage targeting Al-Udeid Air Base.

It remains unclear if the Middle East deployments influenced the shift in Ukraine policy. For now, the Pentagon is recalibrating defense support while signaling that US strategic priorities are being rebalanced under Trump’s push to bring the Ukraine war to a negotiated end.

 

US Navy’s Large-Scale Exercise 2025 to Include NATO, Japan, and Canada in Simulated Global Conflict Drill

The US Navy will conduct its largest maritime training event of the year, Large Scale Exercise (LSE) 2025, later this summer, featuring simulated participation from NATO, Canada, and Japan for the first time. The exercise aims to stress-test command and control across the entire fleet under the pressures of a global conflict scenario.

Unlike other military drills, LSE is strictly naval and designed to simultaneously challenge all operational commands. It will involve all of the Navy’s numbered fleets (2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, and 10th), major four-star fleet commands, and their Marine Corps counterparts.

Planning for the event began immediately after the 2023 iteration and involves an exercise control group of nearly 900 personnel.

Rear Adm. Kenneth Blackmon, the exercise director, and Capt. Chris Narducci, the lead planner, emphasized that the inclusion of allied forces will be “replicated,” meaning foreign participants won’t deploy live assets but will role-play as command counterparts.

Over a dozen retired US flag officers and government representatives will also simulate high-level decision-makers, including the secretary of defense and combatant commanders.

The drill will blend live, virtual, and constructive elements. Live forces include actual ships and aircraft in operational theaters, virtual forces are simulated units interacting with sensors and systems, and constructive forces represent remote or unavailable units contributing to the exercise from afar.

Fleet Marine Forces Atlantic deputy commander Brig. Gen. Thomas Armas underscored the importance of maintaining readiness through complex and realistic training.

“This is very hard,” Armas said. “And you lose the ability to do it quickly if you don’t keep doing it.”

LSE 2025 is expected to refine joint-force coordination, test the Navy’s resilience in a high-stakes scenario, and reinforce interoperability with key allies in preparation for future conflicts.

 

Sources: News Agencies