Evening Brief: Iran Threatens Nuclear Treaty Exit as Europe Mulls Sanctions Reinstatement, Russia Launches $1.1 Trillion Rearmament Plan

· Guy D. McCardle

Nuclear Plant in Bushehr, Iran. (Image grab via X)

Tonight’s briefing cuts through a volatile day on the global stage. Iran’s nuclear threats escalate as Europe weighs sanctions, while tensions spike in the Gulf with a near-clash between an Iranian chopper and a US destroyer. In Gaza, airstrikes and starvation deepen the humanitarian crisis even as ceasefire talks inch forward. Russia ramps up for long war, pulling away from Germany and committing over a trillion to rearmament. Meanwhile, the cyber underworld takes a hit with a major arrest in Kyiv, and the US Air Force grounds its sidearms after a deadly mishap. Toss in diplomatic fallout in Southeast Asia and fresh fire from Trump on the 2016 Russia probe — and you’ve got a storm of headlines we’ve distilled into the need-to-know. Let’s get into it.

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Iran Threatens Nuclear Treaty Exit as Europe Mulls Sanctions Reinstatement

Iran has warned it may withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) if European nations reimpose sanctions over its nuclear program, Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said Wednesday.

The threat comes ahead of a key meeting in Istanbul on Friday with Britain, France, and Germany—remaining members of the 2015 nuclear deal that the US abandoned during President Trump’s first term.

The European nations are considering triggering the deal’s snapback provision, which would restore sanctions if Iran fails to curb its nuclear activities by August. Gharibabadi warned that such a move would end Iran’s restraint, potentially prompting its exit from the NPT, the second country to do so after North Korea in 2003.

Despite recent Israeli and US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, Gharibabadi said Tehran remains open to resuming talks with Washington, cautioning the US against using diplomacy as a front for military action. He emphasized that trust must be rebuilt before serious negotiations can resume.

While Iran remains open to European proposals, Gharibabadi criticized European alignment with US policy, questioning the value of talks if the positions are coordinated. He reiterated Iran’s preference for direct US negotiations under honest terms.

In a signal of limited cooperation, Iran will allow International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors into the country in the coming weeks, but not to nuclear sites. The visit will focus on discussing future access, which Iran says will depend on how the agency addresses what it views as past betrayals.

Iranian officials maintain that diplomacy can still prevent further escalation, if handled independently and respectfully by the West.

 

Iranian Navy Helicopter Confronts US Destroyer Near Territorial Waters

An Iranian Navy helicopter confronted the US Navy destroyer USS Fitzgerald (DDG 62) near Iranian territorial waters in the Gulf of Oman on Wednesday, according to Iranian state TV.

The incident marks the first direct military encounter between Iran and the US since the recent 12-day Iran-Israel war, during which US B-52 bombers reportedly struck Iranian nuclear sites.

Iranian forces deployed the helicopter around 10 a.m. local time after the US warship allegedly approached Iran’s territorial boundary. Iranian media claimed the helicopter flew over the Fitzgerald and issued a warning to maintain distance.

The US ship reportedly responded by threatening to engage the aircraft if it remained in the area.

Iranian air defense forces declared the helicopter protected under their integrated air defense system. The report stated that the Fitzgerald eventually “retreated southward.”

US Central Command (CENTCOM) has yet to confirm the details or provide an official response as of writing.

The exact proximity of the US warship to Iranian waters remains unclear.

 

Aid Groups Warn of Starvation in Gaza as Israeli Strikes Kill 29, Ceasefire Talks Advance

Over 100 humanitarian and rights organizations warned Wednesday that Israel’s blockade and ongoing military offensive are driving Gaza’s population toward famine.

The warning came as Israeli airstrikes killed at least 29 people overnight, including children and women, according to Gaza health officials.

In an open letter, 115 groups—including Doctors Without Borders and Save the Children—accused Israel of creating “chaos, starvation, and death” through aid restrictions and attacks on distribution points. They cited over 1,000 Palestinians allegedly killed while seeking aid.

Israel denies targeting civilians and claims to only fire warning shots, calling the letter “Hamas propaganda.”

The World Health Organization (WHO) reported a surge in malnutrition and disease, with acute malnutrition rates exceeding 10% in children under 5 and severe shortages in food and medical supplies. WHO says at least 21 children have died of starvation-related causes in 2025.

Meanwhile, ceasefire negotiations show signs of progress. Trump administration envoy Steve Witkoff is set to meet Israeli adviser Ron Dermer in Rome to discuss a potential 60-day truce.

The proposed deal would involve phased hostage releases by Hamas in exchange for Palestinian prisoners and expanded aid access.

Israel continues daily airstrikes, claiming they target militants. However, strikes on homes in Gaza City, northern Gaza, and the Nuseirat refugee camp killed civilians, including six children, three women, and a pregnant mother, according to hospitals and health authorities.

Since the war began after Hamas’ October 7 attack, which killed about 1,200 people and led to 251 hostages, more than 59,000 Palestinians have been killed, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry. Over half of those killed are reported to be women and children.

 

Russia Terminates Defense Agreement with Germany

Russia has officially withdrawn from its decades-long defense cooperation agreement with Germany, ending nearly 30 years of military ties with the NATO member.

Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin signed, as reported by state agency TASS last Friday, the termination order, citing what Moscow described as Germany’s “hostile” policies and “aggressive military plans.”

The agreement, established in 1996, had been automatically renewed every five years unless canceled.

Russia’s Foreign Ministry stated the defense partnership no longer aligns with the current state of relations, accusing Berlin of pursuing security ambitions that threaten Russian interests.

The move comes as Germany intensifies support for Ukraine. Since Russia’s 2022 invasion, Berlin has delivered or pledged over $30 billion in military aid to Kyiv, including air defense systems, drones, and armored vehicles. Recent commitments include $3.25 billion in March, $5.4 billion in May, and another $2 billion in June, with funding projected through 2029.

Moscow’s decision marks another clear fracture in East-West relations as the Ukraine war continues to reshape Europe’s security landscape.

 

Russia Launches $1.1 Trillion Rearmament Plan, Prepares for Large-Scale War

Russia is undertaking its largest military rearmament campaign since the Soviet era, with plans to spend $1.1 trillion over the next 11 years in preparation for a potential large-scale war, according to Ukrainian military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov.

Speaking at Ukraine’s annual ambassadorial gathering on July 22, Budanov warned that the Kremlin is mobilizing all sectors of Russian society—political, economic, and social—to support a sustained military buildup. The reform includes the formation of two new military districts (Moscow and Leningrad) and the expansion of additional units and divisions.

Budanov said the initiative is not just about regional dominance, but an attempt to reshape the global security and economic order. He emphasized that Russia is expanding its presence in Africa through proxy forces and conducting hybrid warfare, such as cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns, against Western democracies.

Russia’s defense spending surged by 42% in 2024 to $462 billion, surpassing the combined military budgets of all European nations, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed in April that Russia is ready to scale its war effort to World War II levels, citing massive civilian support for military logistics.

“Moscow aims to impose its own vision of the future world order on countries, where ‘great’ powers, primarily the Russian Federation, have full power, monopoly on all critical resources and decide the world’s fate in a closed circle,” Budanov stressed.

Ukrainian officials estimate that Russia could mobilize up to 5 million trained reservists, with a broader potential pool of 20 million. Western intelligence agencies, including Germany’s BND, have warned that Russia could pose a military threat to NATO by 2030 if current trends continue.

 

Ukraine Arrests Suspected Admin of Major Russian-Language Cybercrime Hub

Ukrainian security forces, in coordination with French police and Europol, arrested the suspected administrator of the notorious cybercrime platform xss.is in Kyiv on Tuesday.

Authorities say the individual earned over 7 million euros (approximately $8.2 million) by running the site and an encrypted messaging service used by cybercriminals.

According to Europol, xss.is had more than 50,000 registered users and served as a central hub for global cybercrime operations. The platform enabled the sale of stolen data, malware, ransomware tools, and access to compromised systems, while also providing dispute arbitration and secure transaction services for cybercriminals.

French prosecutors, who launched the investigation in 2021, described xss.is as one of the main marketplaces for illicit digital activity worldwide. Investigators used wiretaps to track down the suspect, culminating in Tuesday’s arrest by Ukrainian authorities.

 

US Air Force Grounds Sig Sauer M18 Sidearms After Fatal Incident at F.E. Warren AFB

The Air Force Global Strike Command (AFGSC) has temporarily suspended the use of SIG Sauer M18 handguns across its units following the death of a Security Forces airman at F.E. Warren Air Force Base, Wyoming, on July 20.

The airman, assigned to the 90th Security Forces Squadron, died while on duty under still-unconfirmed circumstances.

Effective July 21, AFGSC ordered a pause in the use of M18 sidearms, citing safety concerns. In a memo confirmed by AFGSC, Gen. Thomas Bussiere directed personnel to use M4 rifles as a temporary replacement.

The Air Force Office of Special Investigations and the AFGSC Safety Office are conducting parallel investigations into the incident.

The SIG Sauer M18, a military variant of the P320 series, has been under legal and media scrutiny due to allegations of unintentional discharges. Although Sig Sauer denies any design flaws and maintains that the weapon cannot fire without a trigger pull, reports from law enforcement and military sources continue to raise questions.

An Federal Bureau of Investigation review last year concluded that uncommanded discharges may be possible under certain conditions.

Until investigations are complete, all AFGSC Security Forces units will conduct 100% inspections of their M18 handguns.

The Air Force is working with the Air Force Security Forces Center to assess safety measures and determine appropriate corrective actions.

 

Trump Revives Russia Probe Attacks, Praises Gabbard Report Downplaying 2016 Election Interference

US President Donald Trump reignited his long-running attacks on the Russia investigation Tuesday, claiming that former President Barack Obama and other officials engaged in treason. His remarks followed the release of a report from Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard that seeks to cast doubt on established findings of Russian interference in the 2016 election.

Trump, speaking from the Oval Office, used the report to renew grievances, accusing officials like James Comey, John Brennan, Hillary Clinton, and James Clapper of criminal activity. He praised Gabbard’s report for downplaying Russian interference, calling her “the hottest one in the room right now,” and hinted at more disclosures to come.

Gabbard’s report emphasized that Russia had not hacked US election systems to alter vote tallies, something the Obama administration never alleged.

Critics say the report falsely suggests that absence of vote manipulation undermines broader conclusions about Russia’s influence operations, including hacks, leaks, and disinformation campaigns.

Multiple investigations, including those by Special Counsel Robert Mueller and a bipartisan Senate Intelligence Committee, confirmed extensive Russian meddling on Trump’s behalf.

Democrats condemned Gabbard’s report as politically driven. Sen. Mark Warner accused her of weaponizing the intelligence community to legitimize Trump’s election conspiracy theories. Rep. Jim Himes called the report an attempt to rewrite well-established intelligence findings.

The administration is also pursuing federal investigations into former Obama-era officials, including Brennan and Comey. While the Justice Department acknowledged ongoing inquiries, their scope remains unclear.

Trump’s comments came amid rising pressure from his political base to release information on the Jeffrey Epstein case. When asked, Trump deflected, calling it a “witch hunt,” echoing the language he frequently uses regarding the Russia probe. He denied any wrongdoing or significant involvement with Epstein.

 

UNESCO Rebuilds Mosul as US Withdraws Again, Jeopardizing Global Heritage Programs

With $115 million in international support, UNESCO (UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization) recently helped rebuild the Iraqi city of Mosul, including the iconic Al-Nouri Mosque and Al-Hadba Minaret, after years of devastation under ISIS control.

The project is one of many led by the UN cultural agency, which now faces another major setback as the United States withdraws its funding and membership.

The Trump administration first left UNESCO over accusations of anti-Israel bias. Former President Joe Biden then rejoined in 2023, citing the need to counter China’s growing influence. Now, under renewed Trump leadership, the US is pulling out again, undermining key global efforts in cultural preservation, education, and technology ethics.

UNESCO’s work includes safeguarding World Heritage Sites, promoting Holocaust education, empowering girls through programs like the Malala Fund, combating climate change, and establishing global artificial intelligence (AI) ethics guidelines. It also supports intangible cultural heritage, such as traditional music and crafts.

UNESCO Director-General Audrey Azoulay said the agency anticipated the US exit and has diversified funding. The US now accounts for just 8% of UNESCO’s budget, compared to 40% for some other UN bodies.

Despite the US withdrawal, Azoulay emphasized the agency’s strengthened global backing and rising budget, with continued support from numerous countries and private donors.

 

Thailand Closes Border, Expels Cambodian Envoy After Landmine Wounds Soldiers

Thailand escalated diplomatic tensions with Cambodia on Wednesday by closing northeastern border crossings, expelling Cambodia’s ambassador, and recalling its own envoy following a landmine blast that severely injured five Thai soldiers, including one who lost a leg.

The Royal Thai Army said the explosion occurred in a disputed border zone and blamed newly laid, Russian-made mines not used by Thai forces.

Officials claimed the mines were placed on patrol paths designated as safe by mutual agreement. The incident followed another landmine blast last week that injured three Thai troops.

Thailand’s acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai announced plans to lodge an official protest and warned of further actions.

The military called the incident a “serious threat to peace and stability” and demanded Cambodia accept responsibility.

Cambodia rejected the allegations. Defense Ministry spokesperson Lt. Gen. Maly Socheata claimed the explosion took place inside Cambodian territory and accused Thai forces of violating a 2000 bilateral agreement.

Cambodia denied laying new mines and said the area remains littered with unexploded ordnance from past conflicts.

Tensions have been rising since a May 28 border clash that left one Cambodian soldier dead in another disputed area. Nationalist fervor and a leaked phone call between Thailand’s suspended former Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Cambodia’s ex-leader Hun Sen have further inflamed the situation.

 

Sources: News Agencies