Morning Brief: France to Recognize Palestinian State at United Nations in September, Thailand Rejects Foreign Mediation in Escalating Border Conflict with Cambodia

· Guy D. McCardle

A tank fires amid escalating clashes along the Thai-Cambodia border. (Image grab via X)

The world wakes to deepening fault lines. Sudan’s brutal civil war grinds into its third year with famine and disease tightening their grip. In Syria, hopes for unity collapse as sectarian bloodshed erupts in Sweida. On the defense front, the US greenlights a $4.67 billion arms deal with Egypt and locks in next-generation drone technology, while Ukraine races to secure more Patriots after a brief but revealing Starlink blackout. France shakes up global diplomacy with a bold move to recognize Palestine, and Thailand digs in against international mediation as its border fight with Cambodia turns deadly. Let’s get into it.

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Sudan’s Civil War Enters Third Year Amid Catastrophic Humanitarian Collapse

Over two years into Sudan’s brutal civil war, the conflict between the Sudanese military and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) continues to devastate the country, particularly in Darfur, Kordofan, and Khartoum.

The war, which erupted in April 2023, has led to one of the world’s worst displacement and hunger crises, with widespread atrocities and no clear end in sight.

Both factions face accusations of war crimes, including ethnic cleansing, extrajudicial killings, and sexual violence against civilians. Famine looms for millions, and disease outbreaks such as cholera, measles, and malaria have surged due to the collapse of Sudan’s healthcare system and critical infrastructure.

UNICEF warns that thousands of children under five may die from severe malnutrition.

The war has decimated agricultural land, water systems, power grids, and government institutions. Cultural heritage has also suffered. Over 10 heritage sites, including the National Museum, have been damaged or destroyed. Many schools have also been attacked or repurposed as shelters.

Casualty figures remain uncertain due to the lack of access to medical facilities, but tens of thousands are believed to be wounded. Despite repeated international attempts at peace talks, fighting continues to spread across the country, with no signs of resolution.

 

Sectarian Violence in Southern Syria Shatters Hope for National Unity

Sweida, a Druze-majority city in southern Syria, has descended into violent sectarian conflict, shattering hopes for reconciliation in a post-Assad Syria.

Clashes erupted last week between Druze fighters and armed Bedouin clans following tit-for-tat kidnappings, escalating into brutal street battles that killed hundreds. The Syrian government intervened but aligned with the clans, further inflaming tensions.

Graphic videos emerged of Druze civilians being executed and humiliated by gunmen in military uniforms, often with sectarian slurs. Among the victims was a Syrian-American Druze family from Oklahoma, shown being gunned down in a disturbing clip.

Many Druze now refuse to disarm or trust the interim government led by Ahmad al-Sharaa, a former jihadist commander, despite earlier diplomatic overtures.

The conflict underscores long-standing grievances. The Druze had previously secured semi-autonomy under the Assad regime, avoiding mandatory military service. They initially welcomed Assad’s fall in December, but recent events—mirroring earlier sectarian massacres on Syria’s coast—have deeply fractured any remaining trust.

President al-Sharaa denied targeting the Druze and blamed Israel for inflaming divisions through airstrikes in Sweida. He maintains that government forces only acted against armed factions led by Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri’s Sweida Military Council.

However, Druze residents say the violence has killed any chance for reconciliation, with many now believing Syria’s minority groups face an uncertain—and increasingly violent—future.

 

US Approves $4.67 Billion NASAMS Air Defense Sale to Egypt

The US State Department has approved a potential $4.67 billion Foreign Military Sale of the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS) to Egypt, according to a Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) notice posted Thursday.

The deal includes four AN/MPQ-64F1 Sentinel radars, hundreds of missiles, guidance units, and related non-major defense equipment.

RTX (formerly Raytheon) will serve as the prime contractor. No offset agreements are currently proposed.

The DSCA states the sale will strengthen Egypt’s air defense capability against modern threats and bolster US strategic interests by reinforcing a key non-NATO ally in the Middle East.

Egypt, historically a major recipient of US Foreign Military Funding (FMF), was one of the few nations exempted from the recent FMF pause by Secretary of State Marco Rubio. However, recent military cooperation between Egypt and China has raised concerns in Washington.

The DSCA’s notification initiates a 30-day window during which Congress can block the deal, though such rejections are rare.

Final terms, including cost and equipment quantities, remain subject to negotiation.

 

Draganfly Secures Pentagon Contract for Commander3 XL ISR Drone

Canadian drone manufacturer Draganfly has secured a contract to supply its Commander3 XL unmanned aerial platform to a major branch of the US Department of Defense.

The deal supports Washington’s broader initiative to integrate advanced autonomous systems into military operations.

The Commander3 XL will support intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) missions with multi-role functionality, enhancing frontline flexibility.

Draganfly, headquartered in Saskatchewan, is expanding its North American footprint with a new facility in Tampa, Florida, aimed at strengthening support for US defense and security partners.

The Commander3 XL is a heavy-lift drone with a 22-pound payload capacity, capable of carrying optical and thermal cameras, LiDAR, and cargo delivery modules. It reaches speeds up to 45 mph and operates for up to 35 minutes unloaded. A hybrid variant features a Pegasus 70cc engine compatible with gasoline and heavy fuels, improving operational endurance. The platform includes foldable arms, a rugged frame, and can deploy in light rain or snow.

Draganfly CEO Cameron Chell emphasized in a statement released last Wednesday the drone’s field-readiness, stating the order “validates the Commander3 XL’s reliability and versatility for frontline applications.”

 

US Space Force Creates Two New System Deltas to Oversee Missile Warning and Sensing Programs

The US Space Force’s Space Systems Command (SSC) has established two new Systems Deltas (SYDs) to oversee key acquisition efforts: SYD 84 for missile warning and tracking, and SYD 810 for space-based sensing and targeting.

The move, announced July 17, aligns SSC’s development structure with the operational organization of Space Operations Command (SpOC), streamlining mission-focused collaboration.

SYD 84, commanded by Col. Stevie Medeiros, will oversee programs related to space-based missile warning and tracking, including Next-Gen Overhead Persistent Infrared (OPIR) satellites and the Resilient Missile Warning and Tracking Medium Earth Orbit (MEO) program—both focused on countering hypersonic threats. It is partnered with SpOC’s Mission Delta 4.

SYD 810, led by Col. Dane Bannach, is responsible for the Space-Based Sensing and Targeting mission, including environmental monitoring and tactical sensing.

It provides global weather forecasting and actionable environmental data to support mission planning and theater operations. SYD 810 works in tandem with Mission Delta 2 and multiple Space Force Component Commands.

Both deltas fall under the Space Sensing Program Executive Office, led by Col. Robert Davis.

The reorganization also supports SSC’s efforts with the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) to build Ground Moving Target Indicator (GMTI) satellites and explore space-based Air Moving Target Indicator (AMTI) sensor systems as replacements for the aging E-3 Sentry Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) fleet.

 

Ukraine Secures Three Patriot Systems, Seeks Seven More Amid Major Defense Funding Push

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed Thursday that Ukraine will receive three Patriot missile defense systems from Western partners—two from Germany and one from Norway—with ongoing talks to secure seven additional units, including from the Netherlands.

The announcement follows US President Donald Trump’s earlier pledge to send billions of dollars in weapons, including Patriots, triggering a multinational negotiation over defense contributions.

Patriot systems have proven vital in intercepting Russian ballistic missile attacks on Ukrainian cities.

Beyond air defense, Zelenskyy revealed Ukraine faces a $40 billion budget gap in 2026 and requires an additional $25 billion for the production of missiles, drones, and electronic warfare capabilities.

The funding push comes as Ukraine seeks to sustain its military resistance amid Russia’s prolonged invasion.

 

Starlink Outage Disrupts Ukrainian Military Ops, Exposes Battlefield Vulnerability

A major global Starlink outage on Thursday night disrupted Ukraine’s battlefield communications for over two hours, highlighting critical reliance on the satellite internet system.

The outage, caused by an internal software failure at SpaceX, briefly knocked tens of thousands of users offline worldwide including across Ukraine’s entire front line.

Ukrainian drone commander Robert Brovdi confirmed the disruption began at 10:41 p.m. local time and was resolved by 1:05 a.m. Friday. He warned the incident underscored the strategic risk of overdependence on Starlink for combat communications and drone operations.

Despite the blackout, Ukrainian forces continued missions without video feeds, relying on strike drones for reconnaissance.

Oleksandr Dmitriev, founder of the OCHI system that centralizes drone data, echoed concerns, calling reliance on internet-based systems a “huge risk” and advocating for resilient, local communications infrastructure. The outage exposed how battlefield operations could grind to a halt without satellite connectivity.

While Starlink does not officially operate in Russia, Ukrainian officials have noted that Russian forces are also reportedly using the system along the front, raising further security implications.

 

France to Recognize Palestinian State at UN in September, Sparking Backlash from Israel and US

French President Emmanuel Macron announced that France will formally recognize a Palestinian state during the United Nations General Assembly in September.

The declaration, made via a letter to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and published on X, signals a major diplomatic shift aimed at reviving the two-state solution and pushing for peace in the region.

France will become the first major Western power to make the move, breaking from the positions of key allies such as the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom.

Macron’s decision follows months of internal debate and is intended to build momentum ahead of a downgraded international ministerial meeting on Palestine scheduled for July 28–29 in New York.

Israel and the US strongly condemned the move. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused France of rewarding terrorism and warned it would create a new Iranian proxy. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz called the recognition a “disgrace.”

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the plan undermines peace efforts and emboldens Hamas, branding it “a slap in the face to the victims of October 7th.”

The Palestinian Authority welcomed the decision, calling it a validation of Palestinian rights under international law.

Israel has been lobbying Western capitals for months to block unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state, warning France of potential retaliatory measures, including curbing intelligence sharing and escalating actions in the West Bank.

Meanwhile, Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney urged Israel to negotiate a ceasefire and accused it of worsening Gaza’s humanitarian crisis by blocking aid.

Macron’s announcement aims to coordinate with other hesitant or undecided countries ahead of the UN General Assembly, where additional recognition efforts may surface. The diplomatic push follows the cancellation of a broader peace conference originally scheduled for June, derailed by regional conflict and US pressure.

 

UK Reaffirms ‘Absolute’ Commitment to Australia, Signs 50-Year AUKUS Submarine Pact

British Defense Secretary John Healey declared the United Kingdom’s commitment to Australia as “absolute” during high-level defense and foreign policy talks in Sydney on July 19.

Alongside Foreign Minister David Lammy, Healey met with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and senior ministers to advance AUKUS nuclear submarine cooperation and broader strategic ties.

The discussions focused on strengthening the trilateral AUKUS partnership—first established in 2021 between the UK, Australia, and the US—to build a new class of nuclear-powered submarines.

The UK and Australia are set to sign a 50-year defense treaty supporting their submarine programs, projected to create tens of thousands of jobs and generate up to 20 billion pounds ($27 billion) in UK exports over 25 years, according to the British Ministry of Defense.

Amid rising Indo-Pacific tensions and China’s regional military expansion, the US has urged Australia to raise defense spending.

Healey underscored that AUKUS is one of the UK’s most critical defense partnerships and called for a “new era of defense” recognizing the strategic linkage between Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific security.

Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong emphasized the joint effort to shape regional security.

The Australia-United Kingdom Ministerial Consultations (AUKMIN) consultations continue in Melbourne and Darwin, where Britain’s HMS Prince of Wales is participating in the Talisman Sabre war games. The exercise involves 40,000 troops from 19 nations and runs through August 4, aiming to improve joint warfighting capabilities across allied forces in the region.

 

Thailand Rejects Foreign Mediation in Escalating Border Conflict with Cambodia

Thailand has rejected third-party mediation offers in its intensifying border conflict with Cambodia, insisting on resolving the crisis through bilateral talks, the Thai foreign ministry confirmed Friday.

Fighting entered its second day with artillery exchanges across disputed areas, resulting in at least 16 deaths—mostly Thai civilians—in the worst violence between the neighbors in over a decade.

Foreign ministry spokesman Nikorndej Balankura stated Thailand does not currently require external mediation and urged Cambodia to halt cross-border attacks before meaningful dialogue can resume.

Offers to mediate from the US, China, and ASEAN chair Malaysia have been declined for now, though Bangkok said it remains open to ASEAN assistance in facilitating bilateral negotiations.

The conflict began Thursday at a long-disputed border site, with both sides trading blame over the initial provocation.

Cambodia’s Prime Minister Hun Manet has asked the UN Security Council to intervene, accusing Thailand of “premeditated military aggression.”

The Council is scheduled to meet behind closed doors on the issue.

The flare-up follows Thailand’s expulsion of Cambodia’s ambassador and recall of its own envoy, triggered by landmine explosions that injured Thai troops. Thai officials accuse Cambodia of recently planting the mines, a claim Phnom Penh denies.

Despite escalating hostilities, Bangkok emphasized that its doors remain open to direct negotiations, asserting that a bilateral mechanism remains the best path forward.

 

Sources: News Agencies