Morning Brief: UK Pressures Israel with Palestinian Statehood Ultimatum, Massive Quake Triggers Pacific-Wide Tsunami Alerts

· Guy D. McCardle

Aftermath of flooding in Severo-Kurilsk as tsunami waters begin to recede on Wednesday afternoon. (Image grab via X)

Today is Wednesday, July 30, 2025, and this edition of SOFREP’s Morning Brief delivers the latest global developments shaping the security, defense, and geopolitical landscape. Key updates include the UK’s diplomatic pressure on Israel over Palestinian statehood, Germany’s unprecedented military expansion, intensified Russian strikes on Ukrainian civilians, and a powerful Pacific earthquake prompting widespread tsunami alerts. Additional coverage includes shifts in US military drone policy, a missing US sailor in the Timor Sea, Australia’s failed orbital rocket launch, and renewed ceasefire efforts between Thailand and Cambodia.

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UK Pressures Israel with Palestinian Statehood Ultimatum Amid Gaza Crisis

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has set a September deadline for Israel to take concrete steps toward improving the humanitarian situation in Gaza and advancing a peace process, or face UK recognition of a Palestinian state.

The move, announced Tuesday, drew swift criticism from Israel and US President Donald Trump, who said it effectively rewarded Hamas.

Israeli officials condemned the ultimatum, arguing it punishes victims of Hamas’ 2023 attacks.

Britain rejected that characterization. Transport Minister Heidi Alexander emphasized the plan targets the humanitarian crisis, not Hamas, calling the group a “vile terrorist organization.”

The ultimatum comes as global outrage grows over famine conditions in Gaza, where aid access remains severely limited.

Starmer tied recognition to Israeli commitments including increased aid entry, a halt to West Bank annexation, and genuine engagement in a two-state peace process.

France also announced plans to recognize Palestinian statehood in September.

Starmer said Britain would act at the upcoming UN General Assembly if conditions are not met. UK policy had long held that recognition would come when it was “most effective,” a moment Starmer now says has arrived.

 

Germany Launches Major Military Build-Up with Multi-Billion-Euro Orders

Germany plans to issue a wave of multi-billion-euro defense procurement orders, including 20 Eurofighter jets, up to 3,000 Boxer armored vehicles, and as many as 3,500 Patria infantry fighting vehicles, according to sources familiar with the initiative.

The push is part of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s drive to build Europe’s most powerful conventional military and reduce reliance on the United States.

The move follows Merz’s successful effort to bypass Germany’s constitutional debt limits for defense spending. Germany’s defense budget will increase to 83 billion euro ($95.8 billion) by 2026, up 20 billion from 2025.

Estimated costs include 4-5 billion euro for the Eurofighters, 10 billion euro for the Boxer fleet built by KNDS and Rheinmetall, and 7 billion euro for the Patria vehicles. Deliveries of the ground platforms are expected over the next decade.

Germany also plans to acquire more IRIS-T air defense systems and several hundred SkyRanger drone defense platforms. Pricing for these systems is still under discussion.

Merz has pledged to meet NATO’s 3.5 percent of GDP defense spending target by 2029.

The Bundeswehr’s overhaul comes after years of neglect and in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which exposed critical gaps in Germany’s military readiness.

 

Zelenskyy Accuses Russia of Targeting Civilians in Latest Airstrikes

Russian airstrikes on Tuesday killed dozens, mostly civilians, in southeastern Ukraine, targeting a prison in the Zaporizhzhia region and a hospital in neighboring Dnipropetrovsk.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused Russia of deliberately bombing the prison, calling the attack a clear strike on a civilian facility. The Justice Ministry confirmed the strike involved four high-explosive bombs, killing 16 and injuring 43.

A separate missile attack on a hospital killed a pregnant woman and two others. In Kharkiv, five more civilians died when Russian forces struck a humanitarian aid site. Russia denied targeting civilians but has increased its attacks on towns behind the front lines as it maintains control over roughly 20 percent of Ukraine.

US President Donald Trump, expressing growing frustration with Moscow, warned that the US will begin imposing punitive tariffs and other measures within 10 days if Russia shows no progress toward ending the war. The Kremlin responded by reaffirming that its “special military operation” continues.

The Zaporizhzhia prison strike left survivors bloodied and bandaged amid rubble. Eyewitnesses described chaos, with severely wounded prisoners and multiple fatalities.

The attack adds to mounting pressure for stronger international action as the war enters its fourth year.

 

Massive Quake Triggers Pacific-Wide Tsunami Alerts

A powerful 8.8 magnitude earthquake struck off Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula early Wednesday, prompting tsunami warnings and evacuations across the Pacific.

Tsunami waves reached Japan, Hawaii, Alaska, and other coastal areas, with swells recorded as high as 13 feet in Kamchatka, two feet in Hokkaido, and under one foot in the Aleutian Islands.

While no major damage or fatalities have been reported, authorities in Japan, Russia, and the US issued warnings and initiated evacuations.

Kamchatka ports experienced flooding, and minor injuries were reported in both Russia and Japan. Traffic gridlocked in Hawaii’s capital as residents moved inland. Black Hawk helicopters and high-water vehicles were prepped for emergency response.

Japan suspended transport in some coastal areas and temporarily evacuated thousands, including 4,000 workers at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. No operational abnormalities were reported at any nuclear sites.

US coastal states including Oregon, California, and Alaska issued advisories, urging the public to avoid beaches and harbors. Officials warned the tsunami effect may persist for more than a day, with multiple waves posing ongoing risks.

Pacific nations including the Philippines, Mexico, New Zealand, and island states like Fiji and Tonga also activated warnings and precautions.

This earthquake is among the strongest recorded globally since the 2011 Japan disaster, which triggered a nuclear crisis. Multiple aftershocks followed the initial quake, with magnitudes up to 6.9.

 

Pentagon Eases Drone Restrictions to Accelerate Battlefield Use

The Pentagon has overhauled its drone accountability policies to eliminate bureaucratic barriers that discouraged frontline troops from using small unmanned aerial systems (s-UAS).

A new directive from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reclassifies Group 1 and 2 drones, those under 55 pounds, as “consumable commodities” rather than nonexpendable property, aligning their treatment with munitions like artillery shells.

Col. Nick Ryan, the Army’s UAS capability manager, told Breaking Defense that the prior system, where drone losses often triggered financial liability investigations, made soldiers reluctant to use drones in combat.

One drone was nicknamed the “flying FLIPL” in reference to the burdensome Financial Liability Investigation of Property Loss process.

Hegseth’s “Unleashing US Military Drone Dominance” memo mandates that every Army squad field small, one-way attack drones by fiscal year 2026. It also directs revisions to drone training standards and drone categorization to eliminate overregulation and streamline deployment and use.

Army officials say the shift is essential to keep pace with evolving drone warfare, as seen in Ukraine, and gives units freedom to adapt and innovate without fear of punishment for equipment loss.

The changes aim to ensure US forces maintain battlefield dominance through rapid integration of small UAS technologies.

 

US Navy Searching for Missing Sailor from USS George Washington in Timor Sea

A search and rescue operation is underway in the Timor Sea for a missing sailor from the aircraft carrier USS George Washington (CVN 73), who is believed to have gone overboard Monday afternoon local time.

The incident occurred during the ship’s participation in Talisman Sabre 25, a multinational military exercise off the coast of Australia.

The US Navy launched immediate search efforts involving the cruiser USS Robert Smalls (CG 62), destroyer USS Shoup (DDG 86), helicopter squadrons HSC-12 “Golden Falcons” and HSM-78 “Saberhawks,” and fixed-wing aircraft.

Australian Defense Force and Border Force units are also assisting.

The sailor’s identity is being withheld in accordance with Navy policy.

This is George Washington’s first patrol since returning to Japan in November 2024. The carrier strike group includes Carrier Air Wing 5, USS Robert Smalls, and USS Shoup.

 

Australia’s First Homegrown Orbital Rocket Crashes Seconds After Liftoff

Gilmour Space Technologies’ Eris rocket, the first Australian-designed and manufactured vehicle to attempt orbital launch from Australian soil, crashed 14 seconds after liftoff on Wednesday.

The 23-meter rocket launched from a site near Bowen, Queensland, and was intended to carry small satellites to orbit.

Video footage showed the rocket briefly hovering after clearing the launch tower before it fell and smoke rose from the site. No injuries were reported, and the launch infrastructure remained intact.

Despite the failure to reach orbit, the company labeled the mission a success, citing ignition of all four hybrid engines and 23 seconds of burn time.

CEO Adam Gilmour said in a post on LinkedIn that he was pleased Eris got off the ground, noting that few private firms succeed on their first attempt.

This marked Australia’s first orbital launch attempt in over 50 years. Gilmour Space had previously delayed launches due to weather and technical issues.

The company is backed by private investors and recently received five million Australian dollars ($3.2 million) in federal funding, following an earlier 52 million Australian dollars ($33.8 million) grant to boost the country’s commercial space sector.

 

Thailand, Cambodia Recommit to Ceasefire After Fresh Border Clashes

Thailand and Cambodia have reaffirmed their fragile ceasefire after renewed clashes along their disputed border, with China stepping in to mediate.

The ceasefire, brokered Monday in Malaysia under ASEAN leadership and backed by the US, was quickly tested after Thailand accused Cambodia of firing into multiple areas early Tuesday.

Cambodia denied any engagement. Thai forces reported further gunfire exchanges through Wednesday morning, though without heavy artillery use.

By Wednesday afternoon, both sides reiterated their commitment to the ceasefire during an informal meeting in Shanghai with Chinese Vice Minister Sun Weidong. China claimed credit for facilitating the reaffirmation and pledged continued diplomatic support.

The conflict flared last Thursday following a land mine explosion that wounded five Thai soldiers in Phu Makhuea, a contested area near Thailand’s Sisaket province. Tensions had been escalating since May, when a Cambodian soldier was killed in a border incident.

The fighting has killed at least 41 people and displaced over 260,000, though some have begun returning home.

Thailand has formally complained to Malaysia, the US, and China about Cambodia’s alleged ceasefire violations. Meanwhile, many residents remain in shelters amid continued uncertainty, with some expressing fears of renewed violence.

 

Sources: News Agencies