Will America go to war with Iran? War or regime change is doubtful without a clear successor that leans towards the West.
So what now?
Trump doesn’t trust Iran anymore—and that’s saying something, because the man once brokered deals with North Korea while Dennis Rodman was unofficially playing diplomat. When it comes to Tehran, the magic handshake moment is over. Khamenei and his clerical mafia had a shot. They played coy. Trump watched. They blinked. He blinked harder. Now? Game’s off. The Ayatollah lost the only thing that matters to Trump—leverage.
And what happens when The Donald sees no path forward? He lets the pot boil.
He’s likely buying time, stacking options like a blackjack dealer in Vegas on coke, and letting the mullahs squirm under the weight of sanctions, military posturing, global isolation, the unknown, and the very real thought of meeting Allah via RSVP to an air strike.
It’s psychological warfare with a MAGA hat—and for now, it’s working.
A Quick History Lesson on Iran
The President? He’s just the receptionist. The real boss is Ayatollah Khamenei, backed by the bearded bandits in the IRGC who would rather watch the world burn than shake hands with a Zionist. These aren’t rational actors. They’re reading end-times prophecy and building centrifuges in between prayer breaks.
They’ve spent decades bankrolling terror proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis with the singular dream of wiping Israel off the map. That’s not hyperbole—that’s in their constitution.
This is why Israel can’t let Iran have nuclear weapons.
The clerics and mullahs hold true power, with Islamic law (Sharia) is the foundation for everything from politics to personal behavior. They control the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps -Like the secret service, the FBI, and the CIA all in one.
Iran is the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism, according tothe US State Dept.—Iran funds, arms, and trains terror groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis.
Iran’s proxy groups leadership have been heavily crippled by Israel over the past months.
Iran remains a relatively young nation, with roughly 90% of its population under the age of 65 and a median age in the low 30s. The population is nearly evenly split between males and females, and around three-quarters reside in cities and towns.
Iran’s population is mostly young, educated, and moderate—they want jobs, freedom, and a shot at a normal life. But they’re ruled by a hardline religious regime clinging to power like it’s the Middle Ages. It’s a country full of modern thinkers being held hostage by extremists with nuclear ambition and a wild-eyed ideology.
Here’s the playbook for the next two weeks
With Trump putting negotiations with Iran on ice, he’s effectively handed the keys to the Middle East cage match to Israel’s own Captain of Chaos: Benjamin Netanyahu.
This puts massive pressure on Iran’s religious regime.
The Israeli PM sees an opening—a moment where U.S. red tape and international restraint are paper-thin. And when it comes to stopping Iran from going nuclear, Bibi doesn’t deal in half measures. He goes bunker busters.
But make no mistake: neither the U.S. nor Israel wants a full-scale war. Why? Because they’ve seen this movie before—and it ends with a failed state and jihadi frat parties in every basement.
Flashback: Libya—Thanks, Hillary, That Worked Out Great
Let’s take a stroll down memory lane, shall we? Remember Libya? The Obama-Clinton brainchild where we overthrew Gaddafi and then ghosted the country like a Tinder date gone bad?
Yeah, that turned out well—if you like open-air slave markets and AK-47s being traded like mushroom chocolates in Silicon Valley.
Trump doesn’t want (or Israel, for that matter) an Iranian sequel to that dumpster fire. Regime change without a real plan is like skydiving without a parachute—sure, you might fly for a bit, but that landing’s gonna suck.
Trump keeps the pressure on—more sanctions, more carrier groups in the Gulf, and maybe a “we’re not bluffing” tweet at 3 a.m.
Expect more airstrikes from Israel and more covert and cyber operations.
Iran tries to save face without looking like they’re capitulating, pushing the nuclear narrative, possibly urging on their proxies for some plausible-deniability fireworks.
This could also give both the CIA and Mossad time to asses if there’s internal support and a likely candidate to take over should regime change happen.
What will happen?
|
Direct War |
❌ Unlikely (sub-10%). Neither U.S. nor Iran want it. |
|
Shadow Ops |
✅ Highly Likely — cyber, assassinations, surgical strikes |
|
Nuke Push by Iran |
⚠️ Likely if IRGC feels cornered, especially post-Israeli strikes |
|
U.S. Action |
🧊 Cautious — prefers covert ops, diplomatic pressure, but will act if regional stability or U.S. bases are threatened |
|
Israel’s Role |
Aggressive, independent, but tightly calculated |
Regime Change?
Here’s a quick chart of likely candidates:
|
First Name |
Last Name |
Summary |
|
Reza |
Pahlavi |
Son of the last Shah; secular monarchist; widely supported by diaspora; strong U.S./Israel alignment. |
|
Masih (She) |
Alinejad |
Women’s rights activist; symbol of resistance; U.S.-based; bold, media-savvy, anti-regime voice. |
|
Hamed |
Esmaeilion |
Flight PS752 victim-advocate; moral credibility; potential unity figure; reformist appeal. |
|
Mohammad Javad |
Zarif |
Former foreign minister; pro-diplomacy; backed by U.S. moderates but distrusted by Israel. |
|
Hossein |
Alaei |
Ex-IRGC commander turned regime critic; possible transitional military leader; pragmatic wildcard. |
Final Thought: Nuclear Fanatics Are Bad Roommates
Let me spell it out for the back row: letting Iran get nukes is like letting Charles Manson run the city of Los Angeles (as if it wasn’t bad enough off now). It’s insanity. Israel knows it. Trump knows it.
So if the Ayatollah and his clerics thought they could pull a fast one on Trump and walk away with uranium party favors, they just got slapped with a harsh dose of reality—and maybe, just maybe, a hint of bunker-busting karma coming soon to a centrifuge near you.