As we step into an era where military technology moves at warp speed, the US Air Force finds itself at a major crossroads. The age-old blueprint of air superiority—think fast, agile, manned fighter jets like the F-22 Raptor—faces a significant overhaul.
In this reimagining, the B-21 Raider, a stealth bomber set to become the most advanced in the world, is starting to look like the star of the show. With nuclear capability and compatibility with hypersonic missiles, it’s the B-21, not the planned sixth-generation fighter jet, that’s capturing more of the Air Force’s attention. Why? It all comes down to strategy, budget, and some hard truths about emerging threats.
Enter the B-21 Raider
The B-21 Raider isn’t just any stealth bomber. Built by Northrop Grumman, this aircraft is set to redefine what a bomber can do. Designed to be undetectable by enemy radar and built with the most advanced stealth and data-sharing capabilities, it’s already started flight tests.
Picture a bomber that not only can strike deep behind enemy lines but can do so with a host of advanced missiles, including hypersonic ones.
What’s more, it’s capable of carrying nuclear weapons, making it a formidable deterrent to any adversary considering a direct challenge.
While the B-21 is highly advanced and has a higher price tag than its predecessors, it’s still more budget-friendly than the next-generation fighter jet, at least in terms of development costs.
With the Air Force’s plans to acquire at least 100 B-21 bombers, the investment is significant, but so are the potential dividends in terms of versatility, power projection, and the ability to operate in hostile, heavily-defended airspaces.
The B-21 Raider has so far avoided ballooning costs, said Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Allvin. https://t.co/sK1UjEVSOE
— Defense News (@defense_news) October 28, 2024
NGAD: The Future Fighter That May Never Fly
In parallel to the B-21’s rise, there’s another program that’s at risk of going back to the drawing board: the Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program.
As previously discussed, this isn’t your typical jet fighter. Instead of a single aircraft, NGAD was conceived as a “family of systems.”
At its core, this sixth-generation fighter would have been paired with drones and advanced artificial intelligence (AI), enabling it to control swarms of autonomous aircraft in combat zones. Imagine a fighter jet that not only flies but also commands a fleet of drones in real-time, adapting its tactics instantly based on the information flowing from its wingmen.
The problem? All this high-tech wizardry comes with an enormous price tag.
The NGAD fighter is projected to cost up to three times the price of an F-35, reaching as high as $300 million per aircraft. That’s serious money, even by Air Force standards.
Single-engine sixth-generation fighter concept.
Next Generation Air Dominance.https://t.co/wVwLpBMhZ4#sixthgenerationfighter #fx #faxx #ngad #conceptaircraft #usa #airforce #usaf #navy #fighter #fighterjet #jet #jetfighter #stealth #concept #sixthgeneration #uav #ucav #drone pic.twitter.com/1MVfmHh8PX— rodrigo avella (@rodrigoavella) October 22, 2024
It was enough to make the Air Force pause the program earlier this year, with senior leaders like Secretary Frank Kendall suggesting that the costs might be too steep.
As they re-evaluate, there’s growing sentiment that the B-21, already funded and closer to operational readiness, could do more of the heavy lifting.
The A2/AD Factor: Why Over-the-Horizon Power Matters
So, why would the Air Force even consider backing away from a revolutionary fighter jet? The answer lies in a term that’s become central to modern military strategy: anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD).
Essentially, A2/AD is how countries like China and Russia intend to keep American forces out of certain regions by deploying advanced missile defenses, radar systems, and other technologies that make it incredibly dangerous for traditional fighter jets to get close.
The B-21 Raider, by contrast, can operate from much farther away. With its stealth and long-range capabilities, it’s tailor-made for this new environment.
Rather than relying on close-in dogfights, the B-21 can deliver firepower from beyond the reach of enemy defenses, turning A2/AD strategies on their head.
In a time where keeping our forces safe while projecting power matters more than ever, the B-21’s “over-the-horizon” capabilities make it a practical choice for the Air Force.
A New Balance: CCAs and Unmanned Assets
The Air Force is also thinking beyond manned aircraft altogether.
Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCAs) are drones that don’t require human pilots onboard, saving weight and complexity while also being much cheaper to produce.
These unmanned systems could act as loyal “wingmen” for manned fighters, flying in formation, sharing data, and even performing high-risk tasks without endangering pilots.
Plans are already in motion for more than 150 CCAs to be operational within five years. These drones are a fraction of the cost of a manned NGAD fighter, and they’re pushing the Air Force to reconsider its future fighter fleet.
By deploying a mix of B-21 Raiders and CCAs, the Air Force can create a robust and flexible network that achieves air superiority without the heavy cost burden of NGAD.
The Timeline and What’s Next
By December, a blue-ribbon panel that includes former Air Force Chiefs of Staff and civilian experts will present recommendations on the way forward.
The options on the table: commit to the NGAD program as it stands, find ways to cut its costs, or pivot entirely towards a more B-21- and CCA-centric approach.
All of these options have trade-offs, and the Air Force is wisely taking its time to avoid locking into a single, costly direction.
Even as NGAD’s future hangs in the balance, Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Allvin emphasizes that a decision to delay isn’t the same as abandonment.
“I don’t like people having the presupposition that because we’re pausing and analyzing, we’re walking away from it,” Allvin said at the Military Reporters and Editors Conference in Washington, DC, last Friday, October 25. “That decision has not been made.”
Pausing the program now is a move to ensure that, whatever path is chosen, it will genuinely enhance US air superiority in the decades ahead.
“As we are analyzing this, we need to understand, ‘Is this the best for the cost of what we think the threat is going to be?’ and ‘Is this the best way to be able to achieve air superiority?’” Allvin added. “And if it turns out that this platform design, as currently instantiated, is the best… we have to figure out how to pay for it.”
Final Thoughts
The future of air dominance is about to change, and it’s clear the US Air Force isn’t rushing into anything. Whether NGAD becomes a reality or the B-21 Raider takes center stage, the choice will reshape America’s air power for years to come. As emerging threats evolve, so too must the technology that defends against them. With a mix of advanced bombers, drones, and next-gen fighters, the Air Force seems ready to take on that challenge head-on.