US Hands Over Rzeszów to Poland
In January, 2022, Rzeszów, Poland had only one claim to distinction. It was situated within 50 km of the Ukrainian border and it had a runway long enough to land American C-17 Globemaster III aircraft.
When Russia invaded Ukraine in February, 2022, Rzeszów acquired significance beyond its aspirations. It became the key NATO supply hub, a funnel for shipping billions of dollars worth of military equipment to the Kiev regime.
No longer.
General Syrsky of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has stated that the volume of American military aid is declining. This is a natural consequence of the Biden administration’s last-gasp transfusion running down. Indeed, at the beginning of March, when Russia executed its now famous pipeline operation and the liberation of Kursk, the AFU was flush with stockpiles of arms and ammunition. These, however, could not reach Sudja because the Russians held the supply road under fire control. That refutes the argument that America’s brief pause in aid caused the loss of Kursk.
Now the United States, in an effort to cut costs, is withdrawing its forces from Rzeszów. At the beginning of April, there were reports of a flurry of C-17s landing at the Polish airstrip, but these have now tapered off. Presumably, European aid arrives by rail. The C-17 deliveries may well have placed the last of the Biden aid.
Withdrawal of Patriot Batteries
For the last three years, Rzeszów was protected by American Patriot missile batteries. Those have been packed up and withdrawn (see Figure 1 and Figure 2). The US assures NATO and the public that the forces are merely being “redeployed” but there is no information as to where. One has to wonder – if the key northern hub for supply to Ukraine does not rate Patriot air defense, what else does? Probably the US Aegis Ashore installations.
The United Kingdom has been under fire from NATO for its lack of air defense assets. The slack will likely be taken up by Germany and its IRIS-T systems.
It has also been widely reported that the Trump administration is considering withdrawing 10,000 troops from Eastern Europe (some say 20,000). This would constitute about half of the troops that the Biden administration moved there to bolster NATO’s eastern defenses. It is unclear which units would be withdrawn (if any) – if elements of the 5th Corps, the 101st Airborne, and 82nd Airborne are contemplated, this would certainly affect US combat power on the continent. Particularly those of 5th Corps, which are not rapid deployment forces.
One ray of light: in a recent speech, Secretary Pete Hegseth reaffirmed the US commitment to the defense of Poland.
Whither Europe?
The Trump administration has been at pains to squelch rumors that the US was withdrawing from the Greek port of Alexandroupolis. Since 2023, the port has been used to marshal military aid to Ukraine via Romania and the southern route, while Rzeszów forms the northern artery.
The Trump administration is unlikely to withdraw from NATO, but it is equally unlikely to commit another $60 billion to Ukraine. Such a move would divorce the administration from the MAGA America First base. This is President Trump’s final term, but he has to make decisions with a view to 2028 in mind. Rather it is likely the US will maintain a radically reduced footprint, cut financial and military aid, and shift the leadership role to NATO.
About the Author
You may reach Cameron at: [email protected]
Cameron Curtis has spent thirty years in the financial markets as a trader and risk manager. He was on the trade floor when Saddam’s tanks rolled into Kuwait, when the air wars opened over Baghdad and Belgrade, and when the financial crisis swallowed the world. He’s studied military affairs and warfare all his adult life. His popular Breed series of military ad-venture thrillers are admired for combining deep expertise wit/h propulsive action. The premises are realistic, the stories adrenaline-fueled and emotionally engaging.
Check out the books here: Cameron Curtis’s Amazon Page
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