The conversations in Warsaw, Berlin, and Prague have shifted. Where once European military and government officials spoke with confidence about American commitment to European security, there is now a palpable sense of uncertainty and self-reliance. The war in Ukraine has served as a stark wake-up call, revealing that European allies increasingly view themselves as the primary defenders against Russian aggression, with the United States relegated to a secondary role. This transformation represents one of the most significant geopolitical shifts since the end of the Cold War, posing profound risks to American interests and global stability.
The reality is sobering: European allies are quietly walking away from their traditional dependence on American security guarantees. This is not merely a policy disagreement or temporary diplomatic friction—it represents a fundamental recalibration of how Europe views its relationship with the United States. The implications extend far beyond military cooperation, touching on economic partnerships, intelligence sharing, and America’s broader role as a global leader.
“We cannot always assure the future of our friends; we have a better chance of assuring our future if we remember who our friends are”. – Henry A. Kissinger – US Secretary of State (1973-1977)
The Ukrainian Wake-Up Call
The war in Ukraine has crystallized European doubts about American reliability. While the United States has provided substantial military aid to Ukraine, the European Union has sent a staggering $141 billion in aid to Ukraine, including $51 billion in military assistance, demonstrating Europe’s growing willingness to shoulder the burden of its security. More telling is the recent development where European allies are stepping up plans for Ukraine’s stabilization, with European nations taking the lead in planning post-conflict reconstruction and security arrangements.
The shift is evident in defense spending patterns. In 2025, all Allies are expected to meet or exceed the pre-summit target of investing at least 2% of GDP in defense, compared to only three Allies in 2014. Even more significantly, the NATO alliance agreed to a new defense spending target of 5% GDP by 2035, indicating Europe’s commitment to building independent military capabilities.
This transformation reflects a more profound crisis of confidence. European leaders, having witnessed the volatility and shifting priorities of American politics, are hedging their bets by developing autonomous defense capabilities. They are not abandoning the alliance, but they are preparing for a future where American commitment cannot be taken for granted.
Five Critical Reasons America Must Rebuild European Trust
- Geographic and Strategic Depth
Europe provides the United States with irreplaceable geographic advantages in confronting both Russian and Chinese aggression and influence. Forward-deployed American forces in Europe create strategic depth that would be impossible to replicate from North American bases. European bases serve as launching points for operations in Africa, the Middle East, and potentially the Indo-Pacific. Without reliable European partners, the United States would lose critical staging areas, forcing it to project power across vast distances with significantly reduced effectiveness.
The loss of European cooperation would force a fundamental restructuring of American military strategy, requiring massive increases in naval and air capabilities to compensate for the loss of land-based assets. This would not only be exponentially more expensive but would also create dangerous capability gaps during any transition period.
- Intelligence and Information Warfare
European allies possess intelligence capabilities and networks that complement, but are distinct from, American assets. European intelligence services possess a deep historical knowledge of Russian operations, extensive human intelligence networks, and sophisticated counterintelligence capabilities that have been developed over decades of Cold War competition. They also provide crucial insights into Chinese influence operations within Europe and serve as early warning systems for emerging threats.
The loss of these intelligence partnerships would blind America to significant aspects of the threat environment. European allies also provide essential cover for American intelligence operations, offering diplomatic and operational flexibility that would be impossible to achieve unilaterally. In an era of hybrid warfare and information operations, the collective intelligence capabilities of the trans-Atlantic alliance are force multipliers that cannot be easily replaced.
- Economic Leverage and Coalition Building
Europe represents the world’s largest economic bloc and the United States’ most important trading partner. European cooperation is essential for imposing effective economic sanctions on adversaries and building the coalitions necessary to counter Chinese economic coercion. The sanctions regime against Russia, which has been moderately effective, required extensive European participation to achieve a meaningful impact.
Without European partnership, the United States would struggle to build the economic coalitions necessary to compete with China’s Belt and Road Initiative and other forms of economic statecraft. European economies also provide crucial markets for American technology and defense exports, while substantial European investment in American infrastructure and innovation is also evident. An example is the hundreds of European-designed and purpose-built helicopters currently flown by the United States Army, Navy, and Air Force. The economic interdependence between the United States and Europe creates shared interests that make both regions more resilient against external financial pressures.
- Legitimacy and Soft Power
American leadership is most effective when it appears multilateral rather than unilateral. European partnership provides crucial legitimacy for American global leadership, making it more difficult for adversaries to portray American actions as imperial or self-interested. This legitimacy is essential for maintaining broader international coalitions and preventing the formation of counter-hegemonic blocs.
The soft power advantages of trans-Atlantic cooperation extend beyond the military and economic spheres. Joint American-European initiatives in areas such as climate change, technology standards, and human rights carry greater international weight than purely American efforts. This collaborative approach is crucial for countering Chinese and Russian narratives about American decline and European weakness.
- Burden Sharing and Resource Optimization
Despite decades of American complaints about European free riding, the reality is that European allies provide substantial value to the United States’ security. European defense spending has increased dramatically, with European nations now collectively meeting NATO’s 2% GDP target. European allies also provide specialized capabilities that complement American strengths, ranging from cyber defense to Arctic operations, as well as access to air bases, ports, and other key lines of communication.
The alternative to European partnership is not European self-reliance but European alignment with other powers. Suppose Europe cannot rely on American security guarantees. In that case, it will seek security elsewhere—potentially through accommodation with Russia or China, or through the development of an independent European military-industrial complex that competes with American defense exports.
“The first and most important is to emphasize the enduring nature of the alliance relationship particularly with Europe which does share our values and interests even if it disagrees with us on specific policies.” – Zbigniew “Zbig” Brzezinski – US National Security Advisor (1977-1981)
The Consequences of Failure
The erosion of trans-Atlantic trust is not merely a diplomatic inconvenience; it represents a fundamental threat to American global leadership. A Europe that cannot rely on American commitment will develop independent capabilities and potentially divergent interests. This could lead to a fragmented Western response to Chinese expansion, Russian aggression, and other global challenges.
The migration pressures facing Europe—from the Middle East, Africa, and potentially climate-induced displacement—add another layer of complexity. European nations struggling with social cohesion and economic pressures may be more susceptible to populist movements that favor accommodation with authoritarian powers or isolation from international commitments.
Conclusion
The quiet erosion of European confidence in American leadership represents one of the most significant strategic challenges facing the United States. The conversations in European capitals reflect a hard-headed assessment of American reliability, not anti-American sentiment. European allies are not abandoning the West; they are preparing for a future where they cannot depend on American leadership.
America must recognize that rebuilding European trust will require sustained commitment, policy consistency, and genuine partnership rather than mere dominance. The alternative—a fragmented West facing authoritarian challenges—would represent a strategic catastrophe that would undermine American security and prosperity for generations to come. The time for taking the European alliance for granted has passed; the time for rebuilding trust through demonstrated commitment has arrived.